The Big Match Tactical View: Aston Villa v Man City

Sergio Aguero is the favourite to open the scoring

Manchester City lost in a thriller at Villa last year - can they record a victory this time around? Michael Cox considers the tactics, while professional trader Alan Thompson gives you the betting angle...

Aston Villa v Manchester City
Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Aston Villa 8.07/1, Manchester City 1.528/15, The Draw 4.67/2.

This was the type of away fixture that Manchester City badly struggled with at this stage last season - and following last weekend's surprisingly nervy 4-2 victory at Hull City, they could be set another difficult task at high-flying Aston Villa.

Indeed, it's one year and one week since they were defeated 3-2 at Villa Park in the Premier League, and while they'll unquestionably dominate this contest, they must be wary of Aston Villa's counter-attacking threat. Last season they had 67% of possession and recorded 20 shots to eight, yet still left with nothing.

The goal they conceded in midweek, with Roma cutting through the City side with ease, shows that Manuel Pellegrini1`'s side can leave themselves exposed to direct attacking - exactly what Villa excel at.

Pellegrini is likely to continue with Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero upfront, with David Silva on the left and either Jesus Navas or James Milner on the right. This is a key selection decision - Navas provides natural wing play, which is often lacking from elsewhere in the side, and this might be needed to stretch the Villa backline.

If not, City's width must come from full-back, with Pablo Zabaleta and Aleksandar Kolarov the most likely starters. However, Villa won't mind them pushing forward, because it will leave space for their pacey attackers to charge into.

Andres Weimann should start on the right flank, and while Gabriel Agbonlahor will probably be fielded centrally, with Kieran Richardson on the left, the striker will always start on the outside of the centre-backs, making runs into the channels. Vincent Kompany and - in particular - Eliaquim Mangala are quick, but few centre-backs relish playing against the speedy Agbonlahor.

Villa's main concern will be at centre-back, where Ron Vlaar is still out injured. Can Philippe Senderos and Nathan Baker really stop Aguero and Dzeko from finding the net? Both have performed better than expected so far this season, with Alan Hutton and Aly Cisshoko tucking in narrow to help them out - but the combination of Dzeko's movement towards the ball, and Aguero's pace in behind, means they could find it difficult to keep a clean sheet.

Aguero looks at full fitness, which is always the crucial factor when assessing the likelihood of him finding the net - I'll back him to open the scoring at 6.411/2.

Villa have been extremely well organised in the centre of midfield so far this season, with Ashley Westwood playing the holding role, allowing Fabian Delph and Tom Cleverley to move forward into attack. It remains to be seen whether they can stop Yaya Toure, however, and the threat of Silva moving inside from the left means they won't have a numerical advantage, despite Villa having three-versus-two in midfield on paper.

Fernandinho will play the holding role, with Fernando unlikely to start because of a groin strain, and he can be isolated against the back four against midfield runners. He commits a lot of fouls, while Delph is fouled a lot - I can see Fernandinho collecting a yellow card, which should be available at around 3.814/5.

At 1.528/15, City look slightly short to me - they're certainly strong favourites, but having made a relatively sluggish start to the season, and with Villa impressing in the opening weeks, I think City are worth laying at that price.

Recommended Bets

Back Sergio Aguero as First Goalscorer at  6.411/2
Back Fernandinho to be shown a card at 3.814/5
Lay Manchester City at 1.528/15

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Aston Villa have won only 12 of their last 41 home games in the Premier League, so far this season they have beaten Hull City (2-1) but failed to score against Arsenal and Newcastle. The previous two seasons, seven of their other 11 home victories have come against sides that finished below them in the league. However, two of their home victories came last season against today’s opponents and Chelsea, so they can cause an upset.

City are unbeaten on the road in their opening three games this campaign scoring eight times in the process. Last season they averaged two goals per game away from the Etihad and only failed to score in three away days. However, they did find some difficulty when facing the bottom seven sides in the league, picking up only 10 points from a possible 21, suffering defeats at Sunderland, Aston Villa and Cardiff City while drawing 0-0 at Norwich. I certainly wouldn’t be rushing out to back Man City at 1.53 for the win.

Last season these two shared nine goals, five of them coming in this fixture and Man City's away games averaged 3.32 goals per game (63 goals from 19 games). Already this season City’s away fixtures have averaged four goals per game and two of Aston Villa’s three home games have gone over 2.5 goals. I will be splitting my stake, backing 50% on Over 3.5 Goals at anything better than 3.0 before kick-off and 50% on an in running “keep” bet on Over 2.5 Goals at 2.3 should it reach that level.