Sporting v Chelsea: Mourinho to be left disappointed

The Sporting players will be well up for this

After drawing their opening Champions League game against Schalke, Chelsea will be keen to pick up their first win this evening, but Paul Robinson thinks they'll struggle at Sporting...

Sporting v Chelsea
Tuesday September 30, 19:45 BST
Live on Sky Sports 5

Sporting Lisbon enjoyed an excellent campaign last season and actually ran Benfica quite close for the title. They didn't quite have enough to finish first, but second place showed great progress, especially as they had a six point gap back to Porto in third.

That was under Leonardo Jardim though and following his departure to Monaco, the season so far has been solid rather than spectacular with Marco Silva at the helm. 

'Sportinguistas' are actually undefeated in seven competitive matches this year, but only two of those were victories. It is worth noting though that they've already had to face Benfica and Porto - earning a draw with the latter on Friday night.

Chelsea on the other hand have been spectacular as opposed to their usual solid. The once rock solid back four have kept just two clean sheets in eight fixtures this term, but at the other end, the Diego Costa led attack have racked up an impressive 22 goals.

Jose Mourinho has announced that Costa will be starting at Estdio Jos Alvalade this evening, so that clearly shows that the manager is prioritising this match over the impending clash with Arsenal at the weekend. 

I doubt that would have been the case if The Blues has held on to their 1-0 lead against Schalke a fortnight ago, and despite a couple of 'easier' fixtures with Maribor to come, one or two points from a possible six wouldn't be ideal.

Match Odds
Sporting 5.95/1 Chelsea 1.758/11 The Draw 3.814/5

I'm slightly torn here as it's clear that Mourinho is going for the win - and the Portuguese native usually gets what he wants. It won't be easy in the capital city of his country of birth though as Lisbon have already demonstrated that they can go toe to toe with the big guns and avoid defeat.

If Chelsea were even money or a shade bigger I'd likely recommend a small bet on the Londoners. Betting is all about value though and the draw seems a tad too big at the 3.814/5 mark.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.0811/10 Under 2.5 Goals 1.910/11

Sporting have always been a team that have low-scoring affairs and while Chelsea have been involved in plenty of goal-fests so far this season, I think we'll see them revert to type tonight.

Under 2.5 goals is just the favourite according to the market, but with 11 of Sporting's last 13 in front of their own fans having had two goals or less - including three 0-0's and five 1-0's - I would have it as a much heavier favourite if I were running my own book.

Correct Score  

Given all I've said so far, it should come as no surprise that I like the look of a 1-1 correct score. It can be backed at around the 8.27/1 mark and it's the same scoreline that both of these clubs began with in their respective opening round fixtures.

Cash Out  

'Cashing Out' has become hugely popular since Betfair introduced it as locking in a profit before the nerve jangling last few minutes of a match is often a sound option.

In the Half Time/Full Time market, you can back Chelsea to be winning at the break but the game to finish as a draw at odds of 20.019/1. That's huge given what happened at the Bridge two weeks ago and given the doubts over Diego Costa's ability to play 90 minutes, I would imagine that Mourinho will send his team out to get ahead early, allowing him to withdraw his star man in the second half ahead of Arsenal at the weekend.

Recommended Bets
Back The Draw @ 3.814/5 (1pt)
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11 (2pts)
Back a 1-1 Correct Score @ 8.27/1 (1pt)

Best Cash Out
Back Chelsea/Draw in the Half Time/Full Time Market @ 20.019/1