Shanghai Rolex Masters Betting: Simon to get the better of Lopez in Shanghai semi

Gilles Simon can nullify the Lopez serve on Saturday

Saturday is semi finals day at the penultimate Masters 1000 tournament of the year and Sean Calvert provides us with his best bet of the day at the Shanghai Masters...

Feli Lopez just about got us over the line on Friday with a winning wager when the Spaniard came back from a set and 4-2 down to take out Mikhail Youzhny and move into the last four.

It was a match that neither player appeared like they were likely to serve out and when Lopez failed at *5-3 in the third it could have gone either way, but Feli broke the Russian a game later to move through.

There was more good news for Lopez, as in the live rankings he moves up to a career high of number 14, which will be a career best when the rankings are confirmed on Monday.

He'll be delighted with that at the age of 33 and he certainly has a shot at a first ever Masters 1000 final at the tournament where he's now the semis three times.

His only other Masters semi final came in Canada this season and facing him on Saturday at 9.30 am UK time will be Gilles Simon, who took down my outright pick Tomas Berdych with a fine display.

Simon said he was struggling with an abdominal injury that affected his serve, but you would never have guessed that by the way he delivered, with 66 percent of first serves in and 80 percent of points won on it.

Lopez was also said to be suffering a very similar injury earlier in the week, but both have come through to what will be their fourth career clash for a place in the final.

Simon hasn't been in a Masters 1000 semi final since Bercy in 2012 when he lost out to Jerzy Janowicz and if he wins on Saturday he'll be in his first championship match at this level since Madrid in 2008 when it was played on indoor hard.

He went on to lose that final to Andy Murray and he has lost two of his three career meets with Lopez, but both were on grass last season, and Feli was a 1.68/13 shot each time and would be expected to win on his favoured surface.

I said yesterday that much would depend on the serve of Lopez in the match with Youzhny and it showed in the score, with Lopez serving at just 34 percent in set one (which he lost) and then 61 percent and 71 percent in the two sets he won.

It'll be much the same again on Saturday and with Simon being such a good returner - he's always in and around the top 10 in first serve return points won - I would give him the edge - if he's fit.

The layers seem to agree, making Gillou a 1.758/11 favourite and that looks the best bet in this one.

Recommended Bet
Back Simon to beat Lopez at 1.758/11