Shanghai Rolex Masters Betting: Not so simple for Federer against Simon

Can Gilles Simon spring a Shanghai surprise on Sunday?

The final of the Shanghai Masters between Roger Federer and Gilles Simon goes in-play on Sunday at 9:30am UK time and Sean Calvert previews the action...

Gilles Simon provided a pretty comfortable winner for this column on Saturday, as the Frenchman eased past Feliciano Lopez in straight sets to make a first Masters 1000 final in six years.

Gillou was imperious on return again in taking apart Lopez to earn a shot at a maiden Masters title against Roger Federer, who took down Novak Djokovic - also in straight sets.

It's not the final that many would have predicted, with Simon, who beat my outright choice Tomas Berdych in the quarters, being matched at a high of 300299/1 for the title.

And who's to say that he can't end his excellent week in Shanghai by walking away with a first Masters 1000 title at a tempting price of around 4.84/1?

The quality of his tennis has certainly been of a high enough standard to have earned it, but standing in his way is a man looking for his 23rd Masters 1000 crown.

Federer has won four of his six clashes in the past with Simon, including the last four straight, but only once in those half a dozen matches has the Swiss ended up a convincing winner.

One was an early retirement by Simon and two have been five set wins at majors, with the French Open last year the most recent and the 2011 Australian Open before that.

Simon beat Federer here in Shanghai in 2008 and also the same year in Toronto, but all that really proves is that when Simon plays his best he can be a match for Federer.

The Frenchman is certainly at his best right now and if he's not struggling with injury I would expect him to make more of a match of this than the prices suggest.

A confident Gillou is a dangerous opponent for anyone and that clearly includes Federer, not only from their prior clashes, but from the high level of tennis that Simon has produced in his last few matches.

It seems to me that while Federer is the more likely winner, based on his far greater experience in these big Masters 1000 matches, his recent attempts have to close out tournaments have been far from impressive, and I wouldn't want to take a price like 1.271/4 on him on Sunday.

Nerves will be flying around for both men if they get the chance to win this title and I don't think there's as much of a difference between them as the prices suggest.

If I was backing Federer on Sunday the 2-1 win holds far more appeal at 4.33n/a than the skinny 1.271/4 outright, as I would expect the Frenchman to take a set in this one on current form.

The other option is to back Simon 'to win a set' at around 2.111/10.

Recommended Bet
Back Federer to beat Simon 2-1 at 4.33n/a