Scotland v Georgia: Time for Strachan's men to grasp opportunity

Strachan has introduced a more attacking approach

Scottish improvement under Gordon Strachan has been notable; now it's time to turn that progress into points, wins and ultimately an appearance at the finals of a major tournament, starting with Georgia at home on Saturday. Jaymes Monte previews the action...

Scotland v Georgia
Saturday October 11, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports 5

Scotland
Steady progress is the most that can be expected of an international football manager. There is rarely scope for dramatic overhauls and little to no opportunities for a large influx of new players and talent. By that token, Gordon Strachan has done a fantastic job since being appointed as Scotland manager in January of last year.

September's slightly unfortunate 2-1 defeat in Germany was Scotland's first loss in seven matches and provided only the third and fourth goals conceded by the Tartan Army in their last six matches.

Further Scottish encouragement can be taken from Steven Fletcher's first competitive goals since December 2013 as he bagged a brace for Sunderland against Stoke at the weekend, while Steven Naismith increased his tally for the season to four goals in eight Everton games with the Toffees' equaliser at Old Trafford.

Germany are obvious favourites to qualify for Euro 2016, but in a group that also contains Poland, Republic of Ireland, Georgia and Gibraltar, Scotland's minimum expectation should be a play-off berth, while a top two finish and automatic qualification is there for the taking; but only if they can start taking maximum points from games such as this.

Georgia
A last-minute goal from Aiden McGeady denied Georgia a point in a 2-1 defeat to Ireland last time out and with it Temuri Ketsbaia's men were condemned to an eighth successive competitive fixture without a win.

During that period, however, they have managed to hold France to a goalless draw and can take some encouragement from the fact that they avoided any sort of embarrassment in a 2-0 loss to Spain last year.

Away from home they have won none of their last seven internationals and managed to score only two goals in four away games when attempting to qualify for the 2014 World Cup.

Match Odds
Scotland's improvement over recent months is reflected by their 1.715/7 price tag going into this game. It's a price that I fully expect they will justify, but not one that I can get overly excited about backing.

Instead I'll be looking to some other markets.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
My best value bet of the match comes in this market, where Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.245/4. While Opta tell us that Georgia have only scored twice in their last four competitive away matches and Scotland have conceded only four in their last six, the way Strachan's men are starting to play is the key factor behind this bet.

While predecessor Craig Levein was notorious for his negative tactics and unadventurous play, Strachan has slowly chipped away those shackles and the team is now a more expansive and attacking outfit. Consequently they now score more goals, but it does often mean that they can be a little more exposed at the back.

In their first Hampden game since November 2013 Strachan will be keen for his players to go out and showcase this new ethos, and thus I expect to see plenty of goals as two confident strikers - Fletcher and Naismith - are deployed in tandem.

Asian Handicap
I also like the look of Scotland winning this game with a -1 handicap at odds of 2.47/5. Which we should see come in if the hosts can manage to find the back of the net just twice, and almost certainly if they can score three.

As mentioned above Georgia don't score many away from home, a point which is exemplified by the fact that captain Jaba Kankava is the highest international goalscorer in the squad with just four goals - and from 49 games played.

It may also be worth a play on Scotland to win to nil at odds of 2.6413/8.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.245/4
2pts Back Scotland -1 @ 2.47/5

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 5.5 pts
Returned: 10.95 pts
P/L: +5.45 pts