England v San Marino Stats: Outlook stormy for visitors but flood of goals may not arrive

England have not scored more than five goals in any of their 14 home matches under Roy Hodgson

Our stats expert Andrew Atherley turns his eye to the international stage this week and warns that a huge score for England against the minnows of San Marino is very much open to question...

England v San Marino
Thursday October 9, 19:45
Live on ITV1

Let's start with the (near) certainties about England's match against San Marino on Thursday night: Roy Hodgson's team will win, by a big score, to nil, after leading at half-time and winning both halves. Everyone knows all that, which is why those eventualities are short odds.

But the array of Betfair markets is so vast that there is bound to be value, at decent odds, and some stats analysis might unearth where it lies.

Here's one thing to consider: how high will the score go? If it is almost certain that San Marino won't score, this is a question of how many England will score. We have a good idea because the two teams played in World Cup 2014 qualifying and England won 8-0 (away) and 5-0 (home).

Clearly that means England are capable of scoring eight (or more) but the 5-0 home result might be a more accurate guide.

Apart from the away match in San Marino, England have not exceeded five goals since a 6-0 home win against Andorra in June 2009 and then you have to go back another three years to June 2006 to find another 6-0, in a friendly at home to Jamaica.

Big scores, by England or anyone else, are not that common in international football these days and that means Under 6.5 Goals is interesting at 1.8910/11. 

England would have to better their last home result against San Marino by two goals - and also exceed those high scores against Andorra and Jamaica - to make that bet a loser. B.B colleague Luke Moore is being slightly braver here with a tip of Under 5.5 Goals at around 2.56/4

If the goals tally could be lower than many expect, the opposite may be true of corners. In England's two recent meetings with San Marino, total corners were 16 (away) and 17 (home) and those figures mean the eye is drawn to Over 13.5 Corners at 2.77/4.

Half-Time Score is another market to look at. Any Unquoted is favourite at 1.3130/100 but that has occurred only once in Hodgson's 14 home matches - admittedly, most of the opposition has been much better than San Marino, but on their last visit San Marino trailed only 2-0 at the break and the first goal did not arrive until the 35th minute.

It could be worth combining 1-0 at 5.79/2 and 2-0 at 5.14/1 as the only realistic alternatives to Any Unquoted. To back only one option, 2-0 would be the choice.

In similar vein, the First Half Goals 2.5 market has Under 2.5 Goals at 1.728/11 but, with a goalless draw the only other feasible scoreline at the break apart from 1-0 and 2-0, the correct-score option looks better.

Recommended Bets
Back Under 6.5 Goals in England v San Marino at 1.8910/11 (1pt)
Back Over 13.5 Corners in England v San Marino at 2.77/4 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 15 pts
Returned: 14.9 pts
P/L: -0.1 pts