Against All Odds: Sao Paulo to impose their style on Gremio

Muricy Ramalho has seen a lot of goals lately

There's a huge match in Brazil this evening as Gremio take on Sao Paulo and Paul Robinson is predicting goals.

Gremio v Sao Paulo
Saturday October 4, 20:20 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Gremio have been revitalised since Phil Scolari was appointed manager as under his guidance they have built up a nine game unbeaten streak in the league. Six of those were wins and the 21 points they have taken has pushed them up to fifth place, well within reach of a Copa Libertadores place.

The key to their success has been keeping it tight at the back as 'Immortal' conceded just one goal during that period and they come into this match with eight clean sheets in a row. There are no real statistics in our favour for this selection from the Porto Alegre based outfit, but my reasoning is all based around their opponents.

Sao Paulo are one of the funnest teams in Brazilian football as they can either be magnificent or dire. They had got themselves into a position to challenge leaders, Cruzeiro, but one point from a possible 12 has dropped them down to third.

The one thing that is consistent about Muricy Ramalho's side is that goals often follow them around. With 43 scored and 33 conceded so far this term, their matches are averaging 3.04 goals each time - the highest in the entire division. A total of 14 of their 25 have gone over 2.5 and their last half dozen scorelines have been 2-4, 2-0, 3-1, 3-2, 2-2 and 1-3, with all of the higher-scoring ones coming on the road.

This is a clash of the polar opposites but the game is priced up as if two negative teams are playing. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading as low as 1.664/6, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Gremio v Sao Paulo @ 1.664/6

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 266 pts
Returned: 282.29 pts
P/L: + 16.29 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)