Shanghai Rolex Masters Betting: Back on form Berdych the back to lay value in Shanghai

Can Tomas Berdych take advantage of his Shanghai draw?

The world's top stars stay in China this week for the $6.5 million prize fund Shanghai Rolex Masters and tennis expert Sean Calvert assesses the draw to find the best outright bets in this Masters 1000 event...

The biggest tournament of the Asian swing takes place this week in China, as the Shanghai Rolex Masters takes centre stage on week 41 of the ATP World Tour.

And I'm hoping for a change of luck after picking two runners-up in the last two weeks, with Milos Raonic losing in the Tokyo final to Kei Nishikori after Julien Benneteau had done the same thing the week before in Kuala Lumpur.

All of the current top-10 in the world rankings are present at this Masters 1000 event - the penultimate one of the season - and Novak Djokovic is the two-time defending champion here.

Conditions at the Qi Zhong Tennis Centre in the Minhang District of Shanghai are generally regarded as being among the quickest on the tour, with the Decoturf surface and Srixon balls combining to produce fast conditions.

The draw looks very top heavy, with the majority of the main contenders being placed in that section, which is about as tough as it gets for Djokovic on his quest for a Shanghai hat-trick.

Djokovic has Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, and David Ferrer as possible seeded opponents in his half and dangerous floaters such as Jerzy Janowicz, Dominic Thiem, Tommy Robredo, Martin Klizan Alex Dolgopolov and Vasek Pospisil in there too.

By contrast the bottom half looks weaker, with Rafa Nadal facing opposition from Marin Cilic, Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka, Raonic, John Isner and Ernests Gulbis.

On paper that's wide open, with Wawrinka and Ferrer out of form, Isner having been taken apart by Berdych in Beijing and rarely up to much away from the U.S. and Gulbis injured and with a poor record in Asia.

Raonic will probably be tired after a run to the final in Tokyo, while Cilic was brought back down to earth with a bump by Murray in Beijing.

Nadal looked predictably rusty in Beijing and has rarely gone well here, where it's too fast for him, which leaves us with Berdych.

The Czech was in superb form in Beijing last week and he'll be sure to fancy a spot of revenge over Cilic, who beat him comfortably in New York and who Berdych is seeded to face in the third round here.

He will probably have to get past Gasquet in round two as well and if Berdych is looking to erase a few bad memories this week - and he should be - he can do it in his opening two matches.

Gasquet crushed Berdych in straight sets in Davis Cup on clay after the US Open, but typically for the Gasman he took no confidence from it and surrendered meekly to Nadal in Beijing before he even stepped on to the court.

Ferrer looks totally out of sorts at the moment and suffered another bad loss in Tokyo to add to those in Shenzhen and New York and surely it's too quick for him here in any case.

Wawrinka is an enigma these days and was beaten in straight sets by Tatsuma Ito in Tokyo, but I wouldn't rule him out based on that, however maybe he's looking too far forward to the O2 and Davis Cup final to come.

He still needs some points to make sure of his place in London, but it's hard to see Wawrinka not qualifying.

Raonic is perhaps the best of the rest in the bottom half, but much will depend on fitness after Tokyo and he looks a little short priced.

The top half of the draw will probably see Nishikori either withdraw or lose early after his efforts in back-to-back tournaments in Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo, so Federer might be a decent alternative to Djokovic in the top half.

The quick conditions here should suit him and his draw looks to have opened a little with Nishikori likely to be below par, but, like Nadal, Fed has never won the title here in Shanghai.

I did see around 10.09/1 at one stage for the Swiss and that would be about right, but the current 7.06/1 is a bit short and at 23.022/1 in a half without Djokovic Berdych seems a better back-to-lay choice.

At the time of writing the Czech is about to take to the court to contest the Beijing final with nemesis Djokovic and although he's likely to lose that match he should be in good spirits for a run in Shanghai.

And what of Andy Murray? Well, it's very difficult to see the Brit getting past Djokovic and with his record this year against top-20 players his price is far too short and he hasn't been past the quarters in any Masters 1000 since winning Miami in March 2013.

Recommended Bet
Back to lay Berdych at 23.022/1