Rogers Cup 2014 Betting: Fit again Murray to ease past Tsonga

Andy Murray has dealt with one big server already this week

Andy Murray is the new second favourite for the Rogers Cup title after big names fell on Thursday in Toronto and Sean Calvert fancies his chances today to make the semi finals...

It was one of those strange old days of tennis on the ATP Tour on Thursday in Toronto and one that few would have been able to predict.

Novak Djokovic losing 6-2, 6-2 to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just wasn't in the script on a great day for Andy Murray, who saw his likely next opponent fall while he himself moved through to the last eight without hitting a ball.

A peculiar performance from Djokovic, lacking in any energy or timing allowed Tsonga to ease through, while Richard Gasquet's withdrawal was further music to the ears of Murray after Stan Wawrinka was also beaten in straight sets.

It meant that my opening wager of the day was void and back problems for Tomas Berdych didn't help his cause against Feli Lopez, with the Czech ending up obliterating his racquet after the final ball was struck in defeat to the Spaniard.

Surprisingly, there were no tie breaks in that match and Lopez failed to save the one break point against him in that set, which foiled my tie break wager.

So, Murray takes on Tsonga for the 11th time in his career today and I have to like his chances, as will the (presumably) one punter who shrewdly backed the Scot outright at 600599/1 for 5.

Andy is now a 3.55n/a shot and it's fair to say that's one of the best bets I've seen on the ATP Tour, although I would have to question the layer on that one.

Murray vs Tsonga is first up today at 6pm UK time and I cannot see any reason not to side with the Brit here against an opponent who was flattered by the worst display I can remember seeing from Djokovic yesterday.

Tsonga played pretty well, but Novak offered nothing, and a fit Murray, who says he is able to train at 100 percent for the first time now since his back operation, should be a fair bit too good for the limited Frenchman.

Jo's win over Novak has made the price on Andy better and having won his last eight against Tsonga (the knockabout Mubadala exhibition event doesn't count) a fit Murray should extend his overall series lead to 10-2 after today.

The minus 2.5 games on Murray appeals here, with the Scot having covered that handicap mark on eight of the nine occasions that he's beaten Tsonga.

The only time he didn't was in the Queen's final of 2011 on grass and Murray's return game compared with Tsonga's is the yawning chasm between this pair.

Then there's Murray's 29-6 record on hard courts against Frenchmen and the way that Murray eased past a similarly big server in Nick Kyrgios a few days ago to add to the mix as well.

In the midnight UK time match it's worth another go at the set one tie break in what seems certain to be a chanceless, serve dominated contest between Raonic and Lopez.

There have been surprisingly few breakers in the nine sets they've contested thus far in a series that Raonic holds a 2-1 lead in, but in their only meeting on an outdoor hard court Lopez took the opener 7-6.

Feli has a 19-18 record in tie breaks in 2014, while Milos has a stellar 21-8 mark this campaign, which explains the prices of 4.57/2 on Raonic 7-6 and 7.06/1 on Lopez 7-6.

As a Cash Out bet the Lopez 7-6 is obviously a better option if you're cashing out at 6-6, with Raonic likely to be only a fairly narrow favourite at that stage to win the set.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray -2.5 games to beat Tsonga at 1.84/5

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Lopez to win set one 7-6 at 7.06/1

Rogers Cup 2014 profit and loss

Staked: 70.00 (based on a 10 stake per bet)
Returned: 70.80
Profit: + 0.80