Rogers Cup 2014 Betting: Confident Tsonga can push Federer in Toronto final

Can Jo defy Roger in the Rogers Cup final?

Roger Federer faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Rogers Cup final in Toronto on Sunday and Sean Calvert expects a close match between the pair...

My fears over the fitness of Grigor Dimitrov were proven to be correct yesterday in the Toronto semi finals and he was unable to offer even a first set success against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The Frenchman delighted his 6 outright backer at 180179/1 by easing past a clearly fatigued Dimitrov, despite serving at less than 50% of first serves in, and into his third Masters 1000 final.

Tsonga last won one of these way back in 2008 in his only success to date at this level, which was at home in Paris on indoor hard against David Nalbandian.

Indeed, Jo's last final at this level also came at Bercy against Federer when he was a straight sets loser in 2011, but I expect him to give the Swiss a run for his money tonight.

The stats aren't with Tsonga tonight, but when have they been this week, with the Frenchman defying overwhelmingly poor head-to-heads with both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray already?

For the record - not that it seems to count for much this week - Federer has an 11-4 career lead over Tsonga, whose last success over the Swiss came here in Canada in Montreal in 2011, where he also beat Fed in 2009.

Indeed, Tsonga had never played in Toronto before this week, but he did have a good record in Montreal, where he made the semis both times he played there.

He's not beaten Federer in a final in two previous attempts, but I'm not too sure that punters should put too much credence on past events between this pair, as Jo has ripped up the form book all week and will be bubbling with confidence.

Admittedly, Tsonga's wins over Djokovic and Murray were gained thanks largely to poor performances from that pair, but clearly the Frenchman has taken a lot of confidence from this run.

Federer, as well as Tsonga, faced a fatigued and very much below par opponent in the semis last night, as Feli Lopez threw in a shocker of an effort and there's little to be gleaned from that match.

Tsonga didn't serve well against Dimitrov, but prior to that he's been very good from the service line this week and he looks a good bet to hit the most aces today.

A repeat of the 49% first serve mark that he delivered against Dimitrov probably won't be good enough today and he's never beaten Federer while serving below 50%, as you would expect, so a lot depends on how well Tsonga serves.

Interestingly, Tsonga served at 75% when he beat Federer in three at the French Open in 2013 and this streaky sort is quite likely to come out inspired here, which puts me off the 1.4740/85 about Federer.

I prefer the chances of a long match here, with the three sets price of 2.588/5 being the standout for me.

Recommended Bet
Back three sets at 2.588/5

Rogers Cup 2014 profit and loss

Staked: 100.00 (based on a 10 stake per bet)
Returned: 70.80
Profit: – 29.80