PFA Player of the Year: Arsenal newbie must be backed

Alexis Sanchez has adapted to the Premier League with ease

The trends hint that Alexis Sanchez is a better PFA Player of the Year bet than Cesc Fabregas, Sergio Aguero or Eden Hazard...

This has been a rather strange Premier League season. Southampton are third, no manager was axed until after Christmas and the question "who is the best player in the league?" is capable of provoking more answers than "name every club that Steve Claridge has represented?"

Getting over halfway through the campaign without a clear PFA Player of the Year favourite is rare. Getting there with four men almost inseparable in the betting is even more unusual, but that is the position that Cesc Fabregas, Alexis Sanchez, Sergio Aguero and Eden Hazard are in.

Let's assess the candidacy of each, by considering both why they are fancied and whether they fit the profile of an award winner...

Cesc Fabregas 4.03/1

Why does he deserve it?
Fabregas has made assisting almost as cool as scoring, instantly proving his worth to Chelsea by creating 14 goals in his first 20 Premier League appearances. Nobody else has managed more than eight. Most recognise him as the leading force behind the Blues' emergence as 1.444/9 title favourites.

Are the trends on his side?
There are three things counting against the market leader: 1) other clubs' players don't like Chelsea, rewarding a member of their squad once ever (John Terry in 2004/05, 2) the victor was a winger or forward in 18 of the last 21 years, not to mention each of the latest eight and 3) nobody has won it in their debut season at a team since Ruud van Nistelrooy at Man United in 2001/02. Admittedly, this affects for Sanchez too.

Alexis Sanchez 4.84/1

Why does he deserve it?
The summer signing has carried an average Arsenal side to within a point of fourth, netting 12 times and providing seven assists in his first 19 Premier League starts. Despite usually playing out wide or as a number ten, he is three goals shy of top marksman Diego Costa and 10.09/1 to be top goalscorer.

Are the trends on his side?
Prolific wide men are very much in fashion with their fellow professionals. At a push, five of the past eight winners fitted that description: Cristiano Ronaldo in 2006/07 and 2007/08, Ryan Giggs in 2008/09 and Gareth Bale in 2010/11 and 2012/13. Encouragingly, none of the five guys to triumph to date this decade led their employers to the title, whereas seven of the previous ten had done.

Sergio Aguero 5.69/2

Why does he deserve it?
Though Man City closed the gap on Chelsea during his recent injury absence, they may have already been too far adrift without his 14 goals in 13 Premier League starts prior to that as almost everyone around him underperformed. He was also responsible for five of their nine Champions League goals.

Are the trends on his side?
No Man City player has ever taken the prize in its 41-year history. Even in title-winning years they are overlooked, with Joe Hart, David Silva and Aguero making the final cut but being denied by Arsenal's Robin van Persie in 2011/12 and Liverpool's Luis Suarez chosen over Yaya Toure last term.

Eden Hazard 5.69/2

Why does he deserve it?
In truth, this writer rates him the least worthy frontrunner, and the third most qualified Chelsea contender at best after Fabregas and Diego Costa. However, if you had to construct a case, you would highlight his creditable Premier League goal (eight) and assist (four) tallies and knack of notching against rivals (Tottenham twice and Arsenal).

Are the trends on his side?
His 2013/14 PFA Young Player of the Year recognition showed that he is well regarded by colleagues, but only once in the Premier League era was it followed by the top honour 12 months on. Cristiano Ronaldo did it in 2007/08, but that wasn't a breakthrough as he had done the PFA Player/PFA Young Player double in 2006/07.