The NFL Conference Championship games on January 18th see the Green Bay Packers visit defending champions the Seattle Seahawks, while New England host Indianapolis. This NFL Conference Championship betting preview looks at various predictive indicators to aide your betting.
Predicting NFL Conference Championship betting results
All four teams are evidently talented, especially given their seeding; (NFC) Seattle Seahawks (1), Green Bay Packers (2) & (AFC) New England Patriots (1), Indianapolis Colts (4).
Talent obviously contributes to the outcomes of sporting events, but individual games are also decided by relatively unpredictable events, such as turnovers, subjective calls by the officials, injuries as well as moments of exceptional skill – something bettors must be aware of.
Therefore, although bettors may be able to isolate areas of the game where one team might expect to excel over another, they can still only attach a probability to each possible match outcome.
For example, had Dallas’ brave play calling on 4th and 2 been ruled a catch late in the game against Green Bay rather than an incompletion, or New England had failed to rally from twice being two touchdowns adrift of their opponents Baltimore, the penultimate week of competitive play may have featured entirely different matchups.
Seeding and post season participation is gained predominately on wins and losses over a relatively short season, comprising 16 games, but points, scored and conceded, often gives a more reliable predictive indication of a team’s worth.
Team
Points Scored per Game
Points Allowed per Game
Differential
New England
29.6
20.2
9.4
Seattle
25.0
16.0
9.0
Green Bay
30.1
21.7
8.4
Indianapolis
28.2
21,8
6.4
The table above shows the average points differential between points scored and points allowed for the final four sides. Bettors can use this data to begin to separate the teams in terms of offensive and defensive abilities.
The average number of points scored or allowed in 2014 was around 22.5. Therefore, all four teams score well above the average number of points on offense and with the exception of Seattle, who are exceptional, each concede points that are slightly below the league average.
Yardage & Strength of schedule statistics
The efficiency at which a side passes or runs the football can also be used as a predictive statistic in future matches. This approach has the advantage of comparing the two different ways of moving the football downfield, as well as increasing further the sample size of events.
The average team will attempt upwards of 60 plays per match and each one can be used to assess their likely talent.
Team
Offensive Yards per Run
Offensive Net Yards per Pass
Defensive Yards per Run
Defensive Net Yards per Pass
New England
3.85
6.85
4.03
6.67
Seattle
5.18
7.35
3.49
5.88
Green Bay
4.37
8.00
4.32
6.51
Indianapolis
3.87
7.39
4.31
6.43
Strength of schedule is a perennial issue in the NFL. In a competition comprising 32 teams, a side will play just 13 rivals across 16 regular season matches. So although raw efficiency statistics are useful, they can be improved upon by accounting for the differing levels of opposition.
For example, although Green Bay ran for over 8 tenths of a yard per carry less than Seattle, Seattle faced a batch of teams which had inferior run defences compared to those faced by the Packers. So bettors need to account for these slightly different challenges faced by the two rushing offenses, to more accurately gauge each teams ability.
Following these small corrections, prior to Sunday’s Championship match Seattle, on average gained 122% of the yardage typically allowed by their opponents per running play, while Green Bay gained 108% of the typical running yardage allowed by their opponents.
Strengths & weaknesses of the 2015 NFL Conference Championship teams
Team
Rushing Efficiency
Passing Efficiency
Defensive Rushing Efficiency
Defensive Passing Efficiency
New England
94
105
98
102
Seattle
122
108
85
87
Green Bay
108
116
102
98
Indianapolis
94
110
104
93
(Figures in bold indicate an above average unit.)
These efficiency figures further illustrate the strengths and relative weaknesses of the four remaining teams. Figures in excess of 100 on offense indicate a team that is above average, while an above average talent on defense is shown by a figure below 100.
As is common in the current NFL, even the season’s most successful sides do have exploitable weakness in some parts of their game. Indianapolis and New England are both below average in their offensive running efficiencies and defensively, Green Bay and Indianapolis are slightly below average against the run.
Then again defending Super Bowl champions, Seattle have recorded efficiencies that are above average, both against the run and the pass, on both sides of the football.
So where win and losses or even points were able to arrange each team in a possible order of ability, when we look at yardage efficiencies, much more detail begins to emerge for potential game day matchups.
Using regression analysis to predict NFL Conference Championship winner
In the current NFL, the ability to pass the ball efficiently is well rewarded. Therefore, although rushing is obviously helpful, passing ability is of greater importance.
We can use regression analysis to establish the relationship between the rushing and passing offensive and defensive efficiencies of each team prior to a single game and the outcome of that game, and use that relationship to attempt to predict the result of future matches.
For example, judged on the efficiencies of Green Bay and Seattle so far this season and how their defences and offenses match up, Seattle should be able to run the ball easily and pass the ball well when they meet on Sunday.
Green Bay, although typically above average offensively are likely to struggle both on the ground and through the air, because of Seattle’s excellent defense.
Over the previous six NFL seasons, the home team has won 69% of games that match the current efficiency profiles of Green Bay and Seattle going into a game, the equivalent of a handicap start of 6 points for Green Bay. Pinnacle Sports' odds currently give the Seahawks a 75.36% chance of winning on the moneyline, and they are -7.5 on the spread.
Conference Championship Games
Probability of a Home Win
Equivalent Spread
Green Bay @ Seattle
0.69
-6
Indianapolis @ New England
0.59
-3
A similar comparison between historical outcomes and the efficiency figures taken into the AFC Championship game by New England, as the home team and Indianapolis, gives the Tom Brady led Patriots around a 59% chance of winning. This is roughly the equivalent of a field goal start for the Colts. Compared to Pinnacle Sports' odds the Patriots are considered to have a 72.62% chance of winning on the moneyline, and they are -6.5 on the spread.
Of course these probabilities refer to long-term outcomes and any number of individual incidents may occur to confound the prediction in a single contest.
Also other factors, such as Aaron Rodgers’ injury, Bill Belichick’s renowned ability to sometimes extract more from his sides, Indianapolis’ extra week of or Seattle’s famed 12th man, may cause the line to be revised from those indicated by the statistics.
But in short, the home, higher seeded sides appear to be rightful favourites. However, as was the case in three of the four divisional round games, bettors should be aware that the underdogs may have been underrated against the spread.
Click here for the latest NFL Conference Championship odds.
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