Steve Bruce's Hull look a good bet to win at Burnley says Mike
Mike Norman takes a look at the four Premier League games kicking off at the tradional time of 3pm this Saturday, and he believes that Hull are a great price to heap more misery on struggling Burnley...
Burnley 2.6413/8 v Hull 3.02/1; The Draw 3.412/5
For the life of me I can't understand why Burnley are favourites to win this game, and therefore I simply have to make Hull my best bet of the day.
Of course Sean Dyche's men are going to win sooner rather than later, and I'd understand them being favourites if they were approaching this weekend in a bit of form and were facing a side also in the relegation zone. But that's far from being the case.
The Clarets are winless in 11 league and cup games this term but in recent weeks they've really struggled, conceding three goals in each of their losses to West Ham, Everton, and Arsenal, the first two of those defeats coming at Turf Moor.
Hull aren't in the greatest form admittedly, but their last two away games resulted in a draw at Arsenal and a draw at Liverpool, telling me that they are a class above newly-promoted Burnley.
But the big difference between these two sides is that the Tigers know how to find the back of the net, the Clarets don't. Burnley have averaged 0.5 goals per game in the Premier League so far this season, Hull have scored exactly two in three of their last four away games.
Steve Bruce's men were trading at around 2.75n/a at the start of the week, which I thought was generous. Incredibly they've now drifted to 3.02/1 to win and I simply can't let that go. Now, what's that saying about when something looks too good to be true?
Recommended Bet
Back Hull to Win @ 3.02/1 (best bet)
Man United 1.331/3 v Crystal Palace 12.011/1; The Draw 6.05/1
A lot of comparisons have been made this week on the starts made by both David Moyes and Louis van Gaal to their Manchester United managerial careers. Moyes comes out on top, but I can't recall him going through a defensive crisis similar to what the current boss is going through.
True, perhaps the Dutchman has brought it on himself by not investing more in that area of the team, but it can't be disputed that he's had some serious bad luck at the back. Chris Smalling is suspended, Marcos Rojo is definitely out, and LVG could also be without all of Rafael, Phil Jones, and Jonny Evans for the visit of Palace on Saturday.
Not that it should matter. United restricted Manchester City to just one goal with a defensive line-up described by Jamie Carragher as the worst he'd ever seen!
United caused City problems at the other end too and I have no doubt they'll cause the Eagles enough problems to win this game. The only question is how do we profit?
Whatever good or bad Palace do seems to go unnoticed because of Neil Warnock's constant, and quite frankly irritating, attacks on officials after every match. Football would be better off without the sorest loser in the game and you start to wonder how long it will be before his players get fed up off him also. If they're not already.
Opta tell us that Palace have failed to score in eight of their last 10 league meetings with the Red Devils; both games last season ended 2-0 to United. Dare we go for a home win to nil with a makeshift defence? Odds of 2.47/5 look more than fair so that's how we'll play it.
Recommended Bet
Back Man Utd Win to Nil @ 2.47/5
Southampton 1.4740/85 v Leicester 8.27/1; The Draw 4.84/1
Southampton seemingly get better and better, and they're having a bit of luck too with the fixtures as they now face a Leicestere side who have gone completely off the boil.
There isn't much to say about the Saints that isn't already known - they're in flying form and have now won 10 of their last 11 matches in all competitions. Ronald Koeman has made an immedite impact and his signings - Graziano Pelle and Dusan Tadic especially - have been brilliant so far.
Leicester meanwhile are going in completely the opposite direction, falling into the relegation zone after taking just one point from the last 15 available. The worry is that their last five games have been against Palace, Burnley, Newcastle, Swansea, and West Brom and yet they lost four of those matches without scoring a single goal.
You wouldn't have thought that a trip to St Mary's is the ideal game for Nigel Pearson's men to recapture their form, especially given the Opta stat that tells us Southampton have conceded just five league goals this season; fewer than any other team in England's top four divisions.
A home win to nil is certainly a good option but I just prefer to back Southampton to lead at the interval before taking another three points. The Saints have led at half time in each of their last four games before going on to win, and I fancy they'll make it five this weekend.
Recommended Bet
Back Southampton HT/FT @ 2.265/4
West Ham 1.784/5 v Aston Villa 5.69/2; The Draw 3.8514/5
I imagine West Ham are a lot of punters' idea of a banker on Saturday and will form part of many weekend accumulators. It's easy to see why.
Sam Allardyce's men have been in very good form of late, winning four of five Premier League games before coming back from 2-0 down at Stoke last Saturday to draw 2-2. The Hammers have now scored at least once in each of their last 10 league and cup games - in fact they've averaged exactly two goals per game in that time.
What Aston Villa would do for a goalscorng record like that. In complete contrast to the Happy Hammers, Villa are really struggling in front of goal - just five goals scored all season and just one in their last six outings. To make matters worse, Paul Lambert is now without the services of fit again striker Christian Benteke for three games due to suspension.
Opta tell us that West Ham are enjoying their best ever start to a Premier League campaign, while Aston Villa have lost six league games on the spin - the two clubs' fortunes couldn't be more different. Predicting a home win is an easy call, let's just hope it's just as easy for Allardyce's men on Saturday.
Recommended Bet
Back West Ham to Win @ 1.784/5
Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 52 pts
Returned: 53.74 pts
P/L: + 1.74 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
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