понедельник, 10 ноября 2014 г.

Ligue 1 Betting: PSG and Marseille set to serve up feast of attacking football

Edinson Cavani will be one of many stars on show

The top two sides in France go head-to-head on Sunday night, and it promises to be a thrilling encounter, writes James Eastham...

Toulouse v Metz (14th v 8th)
Sat, 19:00 GMT

Toulouse are too short to win this game. Alain Casanova's side wanted their home form to be impeccable this season, but it hasn't quite turned out like that: their record in front of their own fans is W2-D2-L1 and they've conceded as many goals (seven) as they've scored. Toulouse's form home and away is unimpressive, too - they've lost their last four games in all competitions, conceding nine goals.

Metz have a poor away record (W1-D1-L4) but have played better than those stats suggest and arrive on the back of a morale-boosting 3-2 win over Caen last weekend. It's worth noting Metz are six places are 4pts (18pts v 14pts) higher than Toulouse in the table.

Lay Toulouse and back both teams to score. The second bet is available at odds-against, a good price considering Toulouse's defensive problems.

Recommended Bets
Lay Toulouse @ 1.748/11
Both Teams to Score @ 2.111/10

Reims v Lille (13th v 12th)
Sun, 16:00 GMT

Reims are unbeaten in four matches (W2-D2-L0) and have won their last two home matches 1-0. Reims manager Jean-Luc Vasseur began the season telling his players to play beautiful football but once the reality of Ligue 1 sank in the ex-Creteil coach adapted and focused on defending more.

The toothlessness of Lille's attack was once again on show in their 3-0 defeat at Everton in the Europa League on Wednesday night. They've scored only nine times in their opening 12 Ligue 1 games - the joint-worst figure in the division - and are likely to be defensive here as their confidence is low.

Given the two sides' form, Reims look too big - they're 4.1n/a to win, whereas Lille are as short as 2.26/5. Support the hosts on the Asian handicap (for more tips on how to use the Asian handicap markets, click here).

Recommended Bet
Reims +0&+0.5 Asian handicap @ 2.05n/a

Reims v Lille (13th v 12th) and Bastia v Montpellier (19th v 9th)
Sat, 19:00 GMT and Sun, 16:00 GMT

This is the best low-scoring double of the weekend. These four teams have scored only 41 goals between them in 48 matches (0.85 goals a game). The average goals-per-game count in matches involving these sides is 2.08. In total 36 of those 48 (75%) games have featured under 2.5 goals.

Unders is 1.528/15 on Reims v Lille and 1.654/6 on Bastia v Montpellier so the double pays out at a good odds-against price.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals Double @ 2.51n/a

PSG v Marseille (2nd v 1st)
Sun, 20:00 GMT
Live on BT Sports 1

The biggest clash in French football has special resonance this weekend because PSG and l'OM are the top two in the table and there is an increasing sense Marcelo Bielsa's Marseille may push Laurent Blanc's reigning champions all the way in the title race.

Going into the game Marseille's form is faltering, however: their eight-game winning streak ended with a 1-0 defeat at Lyon a fortnight ago, they then lost 2-1 at Rennes in the League Cup and were unconvincing 2-1 winners against Lens last weekend. Three automatic starters - centre-back Jeremy Morel, defensive midfielder Alaixys Romao and left winger Andre Ayew - are missing for Marseille, which is a particular problem because Bielsa rarely changes his starting XI.

PSG are also below-strength - Gregory van der Wiel and Thiago Motta are ruled out - but there is a chance Zlatan Ibrahimovic may return after injury. Absent since late September, the talismanic striker was spotted in light training on Thursday. 

If Ibrahimovic plays it would be a boost to our selection, which is Over 2.5 Goals. Marseille's defence has wobbled in recent weeks and the absence of Morel and Romao further complicates their job of shutting out PSG. I expect a goal sooner rather than later in this game, at which point things should open up in spectacular style. Both sides are happier playing on the front foot than defending and the stats reflect that: they have scored 50 goals in 24 matches between them (2.08 goals a game).

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9210/11

2014-15 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 36pts
Returned: 37.4pts
P/L: +1.4pts

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