Bundesliga Betting: Bayern to win, but don't expect a rout

Can Frankfurt keep the score down against the likes of Robben and Ribery?

In a bumper edition of his Bundesliga weekend preview, which includes five matches, Kevin Hatchard suspects Bayern Munich's trip to Eintracht Frankfurt won't be as exciting as the market expects...

Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich
Saturday November 08, 14:30

Like a charging Bavarian bull, Bayern Munich are demolishing all obstacles in their path, regardless of how sturdy those impediments appear to be. In last week's Klassiker, Bayern trailed 1-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund until the 72nd minute, but they didn't panic and kept applying pressure. Eventually, Bayern's out-of-form opponents cracked, and goals from Robert Lewandowski and Arjen Robben secured all three points for Pep Guardiola's men. Bayern are four points clear at the top, with Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbach grimly clinging onto their coat-tails.

On Wednesday night, qualification for the last 16 of the Champions League was comfortably attained with a 2-0 home win against Roma, who haven't really recovered from the 7-1 spanking Bayern gave them in the Eternal City. Roma fed on scraps throughout, with just 28% possession and managing a paltry four goal attempts. Bayern have now kept clean sheets in eight of their last 13 games.

Eintracht Frankfurt made a strong start to the campaign under new coach Thomas Schaaf, but the wheels have come off in the past month. The Eagles have now lost their last four matches in all competitions, and last weekend's 1-0 defeat at Hannover was only the second match in which they have failed to score this season. Some serious injuries have tested the depth of the squad - keeper Kevin Trapp is out until next month with an ankle injury, while Carlos Zambrano and Nelson Valdez will miss most of the campaign with knee ligament damage.

Like most teams in Germany, Frankfurt have an awful record against Bayern, and Opta tell us they have lost their last four games against them. Bayern are a prohibitive 1.282/7 to secure the victory, so we need to turn our attention to other markets for a tasty price.

Under 3.5 Goals is trading at an unusually chunky 1.991/1, and I can see why. Frankfurt have seen five of their last eight matches feature four goals or more, which is also true of four of Bayern's last eight games. However, when you think of this game in particular, the price doesn't seem so attractive.

Bayern are keeping clean sheets, and Frankfurt haven't scored against them since April 2011. It's also worth noting that while Bayern are starting to cut loose at the Allianz Arena, they are generally more circumspect on their travels (excepting trips to Italy). None of Bayern's four away games in the Bundesliga have featured more than two goals, and I don't think this will be a goalfest either. Frankfurt are tougher than their recent results suggest, and even if Bayern get an early advantage, the champions may just slip into cruise control.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 3.5 Goals at 1.991/1

Werder Bremen v Stuttgart
Saturday November 08, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Two famed Bundesliga clubs who have fallen on hard times do battle at the Weserstadion on Saturday, and it could prove to be a pivotal fixture in the relegation scrap. Werder are enjoying the bounce effect of having a new man in the dugout, and former youth coach Viktor Skripnik has beaten Chemnitzer in the German Cup and Mainz in the league.

Werder lack quality in most departments, but one of their players who does have talent is Argentinean striker Franco Di Santo. A few seasons ago, after a particularly hopeless opening hour of a Wigan match, I described him in commentary as "looking like he'd won a raffle to play Premier League football". He scored a blinder ten minutes later - he's that sort of player. He is however enjoying a superb season thus far, and his match-winning brace against Mainz last week featured a chip that was worthy of winning any game. Di Santo is now the league's top scorer with six goals, and he has netted more goals this season than he did in the whole of the last campaign.

As I suggested they might in my season preview, Stuttgart have failed to impress under coach Armin Veh, who won the title with the Swabians in his first spell with them in 2007. VfB simply can't defend - they have shipped 14 goals in their last four league games, and keepers Sven Ulreich and Thorsten Kirchbaum have both played disastrously. To make matters worse, the attacking options have been thinned out by injuries to Daniel Didavi and Vedad Ibisevic.

It's tempting to back a rejuvenated Werder at 2.6813/8, but it's tough to trust them this season. I'm more attracted by backing Di Santo to score against that awful Stuttgart defence at a generous 2.56/4.

Recommended Bet
Back Franco Di Santo to score at 2.56/4 (Sportsbook Product)

Hoffenheim v FC Cologne
Saturday November 08, 14:30

Hoffenheim finally suffered their first defeat of the season last weekend, as they went down 3-1 to a very good Borussia Monchengladbach side. Hoffe struggled to find an attacking spark, and their newly-watertight defence sprung a few leaks against Gladbach's excellent wingers Patrick Herrmann and Andre Hahn.

The question we must consider is whether Hoffe can bounce back against FC Cologne, and I think they can. Markus Gisdol's side have won four of their six home games this term, including the last three.

Newly-promoted Cologne are having a great season, but they were really poor in a 1-0 home defeat to Freiburg last week, and they have only won one of their last five away games in all competitions. I think the home side are overpriced at 1.910/11, especially if forward Kevin Volland manages to recover from a calf injury.

Recommended Bet
Back Hoffenheim at 1.910/11

Wolfsburg v Hamburg
Sunday November 09, 14:30
Live on BT Sport 2

After failing to win any of their first five matches of the season (unless you count a penalty shootout success at Darmstadt in the German Cup), Wolfsburg have made a storming recovery, which has justified the faith shown in coach Dieter Hecking. The Wolves have won their last seven games in all competitions, and are second in the Bundesliga standings, having made the second-best start to a top-flight campaign in their history. During that seven-match winning run, Wolfsburg have slammed in 23 goals.

Wolfsburg can also take heart from their recent record against Sunday's opponents Hamburg - they are unbeaten in the clubs' last six meetings. Hamburg escaped the bottom three last week with a fine 1-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen, but their away record is poor. HSV have lost three of their four road matches, and have scored just one league goal on their travels.

Recommended Bet
Back Wolfsburg -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0811/10

Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Monchengladbach
Sunday November 09, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 2

Despite an improved performance in Der Klassiker, Borussia Dortmund suffered their fifth straight Bundesliga defeat last weekend, and Jurgen Klopp's men find themselves in the league's bottom two. If you had predicted that at the start of the season, I suspect you'd have been offered some counselling.

Dortmund thrashed Galatasaray 4-1 in midweek to book their place in the last 16 of the Champions League, but we now know that BVB's Champions League results have no bearing on what happens domestically.

BVB are 1.654/6 to beat Borussia Monchengladbach, and that's a price we just have to take on. Gladbach were superb in last Sunday's 3-1 win over Hoffenheim, and they continued their unbeaten run in all competitions on Thursday as they won 2-0 at Apollon Limassol in the Europa League. Lucien Favre's men have now played 18 games this season, and are yet to taste defeat.

Gladbach are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Dortmund, and they beat them home and away last season. Dortmund have the potential to overcome anyone on their day, but it's a day their fans keep waiting for, and I expect them to have to wait a little while longer. If you're feeling brave, back Gladbach to win it at a chunky 5.59/2, but I'm going for the lay.

Recommended Bet
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.654/6

Kevin will be commentating on Werder Bremen v Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Monchengladbach for TuneIn with talkSPORT. The commentaries are available worldwide by searching for "Bundesliga English" on TuneIn. You can follow Kevin on Twitter @kevinhatchard

2014/15 Bundesliga P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 38

Points Returned: 40.28

P/L: +2.28 points