BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Djokovic to make history in close Paris encounter

Can Djokovic become the first to defend in Paris since 1971?

The final of the 2014 BNP Paribas Masters is set for Sunday at the Palais Omnisports in Bercy, where defending champion Novak Djokovic faces Milos Raonic and Sean Calvert has found two value wagers...

Novak will be looking to create a few landmark moments today, as the Serb closes in on his 600th career victory and tries to retain a title that has not been won in consecutive years by the same player since 1971.

The great Arthur Ashe was the last player to defend the Paris Masters and Djokovic will also look to further the gap between himself and Roger Federer at the top of the world rankings.

As for Raonic, the Canadian, as I indicated yesterday, made his way past Tomas Berdych, who succumbed to scoreboard pressure late in the third set, but unfortunately one break was enough in set one of that match to down my tie break wager.

There certainly is a pretty strong case to be made for another set one tie break wager in Sunday's final, with three of the last six sets they've played against each other ending in breakers.

All of those meetings were on clay though and you would think that there's less likelihood of service breaks on this sort of indoor hard surface, which makes the 9.08/1 about Raonic 7-6 in set one a viable Cash Out wager.

Indeed, looking at Djokovic's record against another huge server, John Isner, his set one scores against the American show five tie breaks from seven matches and two at 7-5.

Against Raonic on the clay two of three opening sets were tie breaks and the other 7-5, so you should certainly get a run for your money with that one.

Djokovic was a little fortunate to have faced a typically incapacitated Kei Nishikori in the semi finals on Saturday and that followed a win over another fatigued opponent in Andy Murray on Friday, so it's not been the toughest of few days for the Serb.

He's done what he needed to do though and is likely to do so again, but I'm not sure that 1.21/5 is of much interest or value to most and as ever my focus leans towards a bigger priced bet.

The tie break bet is one and a case could also be quite easily made for the 2-1 Djokovic win at around 4.30100/30, with the Canadian playing well enough to grab a set at the moment.

He'll be full of confidence, having played very well against Federer and backed it up with a tight win over Berdych and to back Novak here I'd look to the 2-1 win in preference to the skinny outright price.

Raonic to win a set is also a decent choice here at 2.56/4, as I can see this one being much tighter than a quick glance at the prices suggests, but the stats are very much in favour of that first set going long.

Tie break played at around the 1.84/5 mark is another good choice, but I have to have a go on that Raonic 7-6 at what looks a very big price and the 2-1 to Novak overall.

Milos is likely to have his moments in this one and it could well be very close, but Djokovic finds ways to win in these situations and his extra all-round quality will surely be the difference in the end.

Recommended Bet
Back Djokovic to beat Raonic 2-1 at 4.3100/30

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 9.08/1