ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Nishikori good value to beat Federer in three at the o2

Nishikori is a tempting price to sneak a win against Federer

Tennis expert Sean Calvert enjoyed a comfortable winner on Monday at the World Tour Finals and he's back to preview this afternoon's clash between Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori...

Monday's recommended bet was an easy winner at a nice price, as Stanislas Wawrinka thrashed Tomas Berdych for the loss of just two games at the World Tour Finals at the o2 in London.

Berdych had a shocker and never settled into the match, allowing my 2.26/5 pick to play some of his best tennis of the latter half of the season and cruise to a 6-1, 6-1 round robin win.

On Tuesday it's the turn of another Swiss star to take to the o2 Arena, as Roger Federer faces Kei Nishikori, with both players having one win under their belts already.

Nishikori defeated an out of sorts Andy Murray on Sunday, but in truth that was a pretty poor match from both - with the Scot producing a particularly rancid display - and hopefully this will be a much better spectacle.

Federer was decent against Milos Raonic and he'll be motivated here by having an eye on the year-end number one ranking, for which he'll need a perfect week (and hope that Novak Djokovic loses).

The pair have met on four prior occasions, with the score tied at 2-2 after Nishikori won in Madrid last year and Miami this, while Federer was a winner on the grass of Halle in the summer.

I expect this to be a keenly contested affair - unlike yesterday's matches - and I certainly wouldn't count the Japanese US Open finalist out of this one by any means.

He should be a little less nervous after that win over Murray and that match should have him used to the unique conditions here at the o2.

The match should be a good one to have tickets for, as we're guaranteed to see some great ball striking this afternoon and hopefully a closer match than what we've seen here this week so far, which in truth has been poor stuff in the main.

Nishikori has a 5-3 record in completed matches against top-five ranked players this season and should also have beaten Rafa Nadal in Madrid, but was struck by injury again after dominating the Spaniard on clay back in May.

Federer's record is a similar 5-4 against top-five opponents in 2014 and if both play somewhere near their best today there may not be too much in this one.

Kei's stellar record in deciding sets in 2014 is worth bearing in mind here, with the world number five having won 16 of 17 three set matches this season so far and the 2-1 win for him today is a tempting 7.06/1.

That to me looks a decent Cash Out option, with none of the matches being vaguely close here in London so far we are due one and this is likely to be it.

The overs is also a possibility, but I'm not a huge fan of the over 22.5 games mark, so the back-to-lay option on either player winning in three looks better value, with Kei's price a little too big I feel.

Recommended Bet (back-to-lay)
Back Nishikori to beat Federer 2-1 at 7.06/1