Against All Odds: Struggling Brazilian duo to go out with a whimper

Brazil has been kind to us lately

It's now seven winners from the last eight selections for Paul Robinson and he turns his attentions to Brazil today as he feels the Serie B clash between Portuguesa SP and ABC will be very low-scoring.

Portuguesa SP v ABC
Tuesday November 11, 21:30 GMT

It's been a miserable year or so for Portuguesa SP as following their controversial relegation from the Campeonato last season, they have already suffered the same fate in Brazil's second tier with four games still to go. Their campaign started off in a mid-match walk-off - their opponents were awarded a 3-0 win - and it's likely going to culminate with a rock bottom finish.

The problem for 'Lusa' has been in front of goal as with just 26 scored, they are the lowest scorers in the entire division. Z Augusto's side have netted just four times in their last 10 outings and they've fired three blanks in their last five at home. Things aren't much better at the other end either, but it is worth noting that they kept a clean sheet on Saturday and they've only conceded more than one in two of their last six in front of their own fans.

Opponents, ABC, may sound like they're in a relatively safe position with three teams between themselves and the relegation zone, but the truth is, only two points separate themselves and the 17th placed Oeste. Two wins in their last three have helped their cause but they still need to pick up points before the season draws to a close.

I am going to sound like a broken record here, but like Portuguesa, their struggles have come in front of goal. A paltry total of 28 is the joint second worst in the league and the manager will be grateful to his defence for only conceding 35 - a number bettered by just four clubs. Given that Z Teodoro's men have picked up one point from a possible 24 on the road - scoring two goals in that period - the former Sao Paulo player will probably happy to take a draw, with 0-0 being the most likely outcome.

A pair of blunt attacks should lead to a low-scoring affair tonight, so with over 1.5 goals trading at around the 1.4640/85 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Portuguesa SP v ABC @ 1.4640/85

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 303 pts
Returned: 322.58 pts
P/L: + 19.58 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)