West Ham v QPR: Back a home win as Rangers' woe continues

Stewart Downing has been in good form for West Ham

Luke Moore narrowly missed out on posting yet more profit last week, and this time around he turns his attention to West Ham's home game with struggling Queens Park Rangers...

West Ham v Queens Park Rangers
Sunday October 5, 16:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

West Ham

Despite accepting plaudits for the more progressive style Sam Allardyce has adopted this season, West Ham have still had something of an inconsistent season so far. A draw with Hull was followed by a great win over Liverpool, but that was then slightly undermined by a defeat to Manchester United.

That said, the Hammers were unlucky to not get at least something from the game at Old Trafford and are likely to be still full of confidence ahead of QPR's visit to the Boleyn Ground. West Ham's new signings have looked good, they don't find it tough to score goals and if they can address some of the sloppiness that's dogged them and cost them points, there's no reason they can't put Harry Redknapp's men to the sword, and in some style.

However, if they are to win on Sunday, they will need to do it without captain Mark Noble and new signing Cheikhou Kouyat who will both miss out through injury. Andy Carroll and Joey O'Brien are still out long-term, but Matt Jarvis may make a return to the matchday squad.

Queens Park Rangers

Despite manager Harry Redknapp stating that QPR would 'stay up this season, no problem', the west Londoners are yet to show any sort of consistent form and have lost four of their six Premier League games so far. The only win to their name has come in the shape of a narrow 1-0 over Sunderland, and last time out they were beaten by Southampton.

Starting the season with a fairly disastrous looking 3-5-2 formation in which several of the players didn't really seem to know their roles, Redknapp has switched back to a more traditional 4-4-1-1 and his side now look slightly more solid. The problem is, it's no good looking 'slightly more solid' if you're still going to concede eight goals in your last three games and the Hoops are going to need to up their performance level to get a win at West Ham this weekend.

Positives come in the shape of Niko Kranjcar, who has looked a creative threat since signing before the deadline, and Charlie Austin, who is threatening to find his scoring boots consistently. If those two hit their straps at Upton Park then West Ham could be in for a shock. But the Rs are going to need to tighten up in a big way if they want to record a positive result.

Match Odds

West Ham will go into this game a shade under odds-on. They currently trade at 1.9420/21, and although at first glance that looks a trifle stingy, given their last performance at home and the level of opposition they face here that is actually a pretty good price. I feel like it's difficult to make a case for any other outcome here, even a draw, unless the Hammers massively under-perform.

At 4.67/2, the price on an away win is huge, but I would be very surprised if QPR win more than one or two away games all season (they've won just two of their last 35 away games in the Premier League). I can't see this game being one of them.

Also, their record in London derbies recently is astonishingly poor - they've won none of the last five and lost the last three in a row, according to Opta.

The call has to be a home win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

All of West Ham's last four games and three of QPR's have gone Overs, which currently trades at an odds-against price of 2.021/1. That should tell you all you need to know, trends and odds-wise, but there's probably a bit more to steer you towards the Overs call.

- We know there'll be chances created - no English player has created more chances since the start of the 2013-14 Premier League season than Stewart Downing, who was great against Liverpool.
- Diafra Sakho is in good goalscoring form, he's scored in every start he's made so far this season, so there should be someone there to finish those chances as well.
- Rangers can't keep clean sheets to save their lives and Rio Ferdinand has looked a yard off the pace since he signed.
- West Ham haven't kept a clean sheet all season.

That's that, then.

Bookings Odds

Although it may sound surprising, this fixture can be a bit firey; we've seen three red cards in the last five games between these sides, and the game in October 2012 ended with no less than eight West Ham players on bookings.

Anthony Taylor has been appointed the referee for the game, and admittedly he doesn't normally dish out cards like it's Christmas, but I think backing 45pts and Over in the Bookings Odds market is worth a back, especially given it should be priced up at around 2.55n/a by the time kick off comes around; this game is important to both sides, and their desire and passion could boil over.

Recommended Bets

Back West Ham to win at 1.9420/21
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.021/1
Back 45pts and Over in Booking Odds market at 2.55n/a or bigger

Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L

Staked: 17pts
Returned: 16.94pts
P/L: -0.06pts