The Big Match Tactical View: Man City v Tottenham

David Silva will drift inside dangerously from the left

Manchester City thrashed Tottenham 6-0 in this contest last year - but this should be much tighter. Michael Cox considers the tactical battle, while Alan Thompson has the lowdown on the odds.

Manchester City v Tottenham
Saturday 12:45, BT Sport 1.
Match Odds: Manchester City 1.51/2, Tottenham 8.07/1, The Draw 4.77/2.

A few seasons ago, Manchester City and Tottenham were slugging it out for the final Champions League spot, with Spurs memorably winning 1-0 at the Etihad late in 2009/10 to confirm fourth position. 

Since then, however, it's largely been one-way traffic, as City have constantly defeated Spurs in open, entertaining clashes. City have won six of their last seven against Tottenham, while fixtures over the last three seasons have produced an average of five goals per game. Last season's 6-0 thrashing against Andre Villa-Boas' side, a rout started within 15 seconds by Jesus Navas, was particularly convincing.

Things should be somewhat closer this time around, although Mauricio Pochettino's favoured style isn't dissimilar from that of Villas-Boas - energetic pressing, and a high defensive line. Last season, that played into the hands of Sergio Aguero, who always enjoys playing Spurs (five goals in five appearances), but was also partly because Michael Dawson was so uncomfortable playing high up the pitch. Spurs now have players more comfortable with the system.

A concern for both managers will be the fitness of players returning from international breaks. The restructuring of the international week means players now play at vastly different times, as well as in hugely different locations, and are therefore in completely different situations in terms of recovery and fitness. 

For example, David Silva played in Luxembourg on Sunday, whereas Pablo Zabaleta played as a substitute in Hong Kong on Tuesday - factor in the travel times, and the fact this is an early Saturday kick-off, and there could be some surprise selection decisions.

The key player, should he start (he was an unused substitute against Hong Kong) would be Aguero. His pace and acceleration could prove crucial against a team likely to start high up the pitch, and Aguero seems particularly effective in the opening half hour, before the opposition defence starts to drop deep. This means he's always a good first goalscorer bet, and around 5.85/1 for this game would be good value.

The second key player is Silva, who will drift inside dangerously from his left-sided starting position, asking Spurs right-back Eric Dier - in for the injured Kyle Naughton - some difficult questions. Dier won't have encountered an opponent as dangerous as Silva in terms of positioning and movement, and it could be an extremely difficult test for the youngster.

The Silva-Aguero combination is excellent at cutting through the lines, and City will also have the poaching of Edin Dzeko - another who plays well against Spurs, with six goals in six games. Yaya Toure will surge forward from midfield, with Jesus Navas probably favoured over James Milner on the right. It's difficult to see Spurs keeping a clean sheet, something the Betfair market confirms - the Londoners are 8.615/2 to keep the City attack at bay.

Therefore, Pochettino's side must score. He'll be hoping Emmanuel Adebayor comes alive against his former club, as often seems to happen, because the Togo striker has been terrible this season, scoring just once in seven starts. Roberto Soldado will be itching to start, but Pochettino hasn't shown much sign of favouring the Spanish international.

While Pochettino has played a 4-2-3-1 system so far, there's a chance he could seek to beef up his midfield by playing an extra player in the centre. Ryan Mason has performed well alongside Etienne Capoue in the last two games, but Pochettino could consider playing Mousa Dembele too, as he'll be wary about Silva overloading his midfielders. Lamela had a nightmare here last season and was away in Asia in midweek, while Nacer Chadli appears to be an injury doubt. Either could make way for another midfielder.

It's difficult to make a case for Spurs collecting any points in this game, and I worry about them defensively. Their back four are best when high up the pitch - but that will allow Aguero to break into space. If Spurs play deep, as they did in the second half against Arsenal, City will build constant pressure and Younes Kaboul and Jan Vertonghen are liable to needless errors. I can't see an obvious solution.

This is City's to lose, and I'll back them to be winning at half-time and full-time at 2.35/4.

Recommended Bets
Back Aguero to score first at 5.85/1
Back Man City / Man City in Half-Time / Full-Time at 2.35/4

The Betfair Trader: Alan Thompson

So far this season Tottenham are one of only three teams (Man City and Chelsea being the others) that remain undefeated on the road. While Spurs got a great point at rivals Arsenal, their form at the elite sides isn’t great. Last season when Spurs faced opposition away from home that finished above them in the league, they failed to score in all five attempts, conceding 15 goals and picking up just one point (0-0 Everton) in the process.

Looking further back, Spurs have only won once (Man Utd 3-2) out of their last 13 starts against sides that finished above them in the league - their record against such opposition since the 2010-2011 season reads P13, W1, D3, L9 (those figures do not include this seasons Arsenal game)

The Citizens haven’t had the easiest of starts at the Etihad. They were impressive when beating last season's runners-up Liverpool, though needed a late Frank Lampard equaliser to take a point from their clash with Chelsea. A surprising defeat against Stoke means that after only three matches they need to win every one of their remaining home games just to match last season's total.

Playing against top-10 finishing sides at home last season, City were ahead at half-time and went on to win seven of the nine fixtures, scoring at least twice before the break in all seven. I would rather take my chances backing City/City in the Half-Time/Full-Time market at anything around 2.3 rather than 1.5 in the Match Odds market.

As an in-play trade there could be some late action in this one, City have scored eight of their 14 goals this season in the final 30 minutes, six in the final 15. If the sides are drawing or there is only a one goal margin, I will be looking to “drip” lay the correct score  from about 3.0.

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