Premier League: Arsenal at risk of European hangover

Arsenal's Champions League exertions may cost them at Chelsea

Chelsea's extra day off increases their chances of overcoming Arsenal on Sunday, judging by these stats...

For the first time this season, European football was a treat rather than a chore for Arsenal against Galatasaray. After two suspension-blighted struggles past Besiktas and a deserved defeat to Dortmund, they finally put on a show, even being treated to a firework display by the visiting fans.

Danny Welbeck's clinical finishing in scoring his first senior hat-trick and the incisive contributions of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil in a 4-1 victory which was only their third in ten games across all competitions will inspire renewed Gunners confidence. Given that they remain unbeaten in the Premier League, some may now rate them an attractive bet at 5.69/2 to win at Chelsea on Sunday.

However - and you probably knew that there was a however coming - there is an obstacle that has not yet been publicised. No, not the fact that Arsene Wenger has never triumphed over Jose Mourinho, but the deceptively heavy impact of having a day less to recover from their Champions League activity.

There were three instances in the Premier League last term of two Champions League clubs colliding after one side had played on the Tuesday and the other on the Wednesday and the more-rested team prevailed on every occasion.

Ominously, Arsenal were the victims in two of those examples, folding 0-1 at Man United and 3-6 at Man City as the European fatigue still lingered. The Man City situation was especially cruel, with the Gunners beckoned to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday lunchtime having spent Wednesday night at Napoli. They also lost 0-1 at Man United the prior time they were placed in the position in 2010/11.

In the other 2013/14 occurrence of two Champions League-wearied participants clashing in the Premier League a few days removed, Chelsea were able to make their extra 24 hours count and conquer eventual Premier League champions Man City 2-1 at Stamford Bridge.

Last season was when the extent of the advantage of playing a day earlier was most apparent, though it is visible by looking at the most recent eight examples of such Tuesday-versus-Wednesday combat, dating back to 2010, in which the Tuesday competitors won five to Wednesday's two.

It would consequently appear that Chelsea are worth backing at 1.684/6 to beat Arsenal.