Man City v Roma: Italians rate as super value to end their draw drought

Joe Hart should return but he may be in for an uncomfortable night

Lewis Jones likes the look of this Roma outfit and is predicting a tricky evening for the hosts with the draw a huge runner according to his well-trained betting eye...

Man City v Roma
Tuesday, KO 19:45
Live on ITV1

Man City
City were just seconds away from stealing a valuable point off Bayern Munich in their opening Group E fixture as a mixture of Jerome Boateng and Mario Gtze fired a late winner past an inspired Joe Hart.

That reverse is hardly disastrous in terms of their chance of qualifying from this group but it does ramp up the pressure. Draws are no good now. This is a must-win for Pellegrini's men. There is no room for error.

Errors have been in small supply in front of goal of late with City banging in 11 in their last two domestic fixtures, including firing four past Hull on Saturday in a 4-2 win.

Hart was surprisingly axed for that entertaining clash with the Tigers but Pellegrini has said he will return in goal on Tuesday in place of Willy Caballero, who did little wrong on both Saturday and in their 7-0 thumping of Sheffield Wednesday in the Capital One Cup.

Samir Nasri won't be returning to the City starting eleven anytime soon though as he has been ruled out for a month with a groin injury. He joins Fernando and Stevan Jovetic in the treatment room.

Roma
Roma opened their Group E campaign in style with a 5-1 mauling of Russian side CSKA Moscow at the Stadio Olimpico, with former Arsenal flop Gervinho scoring twice.

They passed the ball with great fluency and created chances at will. It's hard to establish at this stage how strong that line of form is as the Russian's defending was abysmal but Roma's domestic results also puts forward an argument that this side could be a bit of a dark horse in this competition this season.

City are facing a Giallorossi team high on confidence and in possession of a winning mentality, after they made it five straight Serie A victories this season when beating Verona 2-0 on Saturday.

The Italians are sweating over the fitness of key man Daniele De Rossi, who has sat out the last two games with a thigh injury suffered against Cagliari while Davide Astori (knee), Juan Iturbe (thigh) and Leandro Castn (neck) are all missing.

Ashley Cole, who scored a rare winning goal all the way back in 2004 for Arsenal against Man City, will start at left-back as he returns to these shores for the first time since leaving London for Rome in the summer - he will become only the 11th English player to play for a non-British side in the Champions League.

Match Odds
Those looking to trust City at 1.695/7 may not be in for a comfortable evening.

Roma have continued their excellent defensive record this season, conceding just two goals in their six competitive matches. It follows on from a domestic campaign that saw them concede just an average of 0.66 goals per game in Serie A, racking up 21 clean sheets in 38 games.

Despite City's obvious attacking prowess, they may struggle to find a way through against a well-oiled defensive machine led by two powerful Greek centre-backs in Vassilios Torosidis and Kostas Manolas.

An away win has been nibbled at in the week with the price shortening in to 5.59/2. In truth, neither the home win nor away win price makes any sort of appeal to me.

Although the scientists among you will completely disagree, I'm a huge fan of using trends in betting, but not in the traditional way.

Instead of following a trend, I'm of the belief that everything must come to an end at some point. Nothing lasts forever. The key to this betting philosophy is predicting when a trend is about to end. A 'trend ender' could be on the horizon here as Roma haven't drawn in their last 20 competitive matches.

Teams that finish runners-up in their league - as Roma did last season - usually average between six and eight draws a season, which equates to a stalemate every five or six games. One is due for the Italians and considering the form they find themselves in, along with their stellar defensive record, it looks a big runner here.

It's not a gimme by any stretch of the imagination but at 4.3100/30 I'm willing to put my faith in the draw. Three of Manchester City's last four European meetings with Italian clubs have ended 1-1 - that scoreline will do just fine thanks.

Half-time result
This has all the hallmarks of a very nervy night for City and their fans.

These European evenings when a British side are expected to triumph are always played in tricky atmospheres, as seen with Chelsea on Matchday One against Schalke. Roma will set up with keeping things tight early on and City are a team that struggles when they don't get a confidence boosting early goal.

Along with backing the draw outright, I'll be following the 2.3811/8 for the sides to come in all-square when the oranges are served up.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 4.3100/30
Back the half-time draw @ 2.3811/8