League One Betting: Derry's County a side worth sticking with

Notts County boss Shaun Derry

Notts County look an improving side under Shaun Derry, and Alan Dudman is hoping the Magpies can grind out a victory this weekend against Crawley Town....

Notts County 2.1411/10 v Crawley Town 3.814/5, the draw 3.55/2

Things look a lot brighter at Meadow Lane this season, and this is probably the first occasion they have made an appearance in this column. Manager Shaun Derry has been rewarded with a new contract, which is no surprise, as the former QPR midfielder has instilled a fair amount of grittiness to the team. They are certainly much stronger than last term, and I would imagine a few clubs will be monitoring Derry's progress. 

September was kind to the Magpies, as they were unbeaten, but also they have been an under 2.5 goals backer's dream. Four draws were collected last month, with a pair of 0-0's and 1-1's. That's a good sign in terms of their new found resilience. Opta stats point to this, and no other side has kept more clean sheets than County this campaign (five). 

And this is where the nub of the match is. County are hard to beat, whereas Crawley are too inconsistent. In fact, it seems the Sussex side might appear more comfortable playing against expansive teams, which is why I don't fancy them this weekend. 

Town have failed to win on their travels since the opening day of the season, but they have played some decent teams including the MK Dons and Preston. But they gifted the goals to Peterborough last weekend, and manager John Gregory admitted their defending contributed to their own downfall. 

The under 2.5 goals is straight away the most appealing considering four of Crawley's five away trips have found that mark (including a 0-0). Whilst the Magpies have drawn five from 11 this term with four under matches from six on their own patch. Even though the hosts have recently signed QPR winger Michael Petrasso, I'm not sure it's a game this weekend for wing play and flair. County are a solid team and are a lot tighter at the back. They might be good enough to grind out a 1-0 victory here. 

Recommended Bet
Back Notts County to win @ 2.1411/10

Fleetwood Town 2.3811/8 v Doncaster Rovers 3.1511/5, the draw 3.412/5

Doncaster are far too inconsistent to warrant a back at odds of 3.1511/5, and their overall form suggests that price looks a little short. Rovers are fourteenth in the table with a real mixed bag of a record. Their League One form reads four wins from eight, but away from home they have been a bit better - with a run of three successes from five. 

Doncaster's last match saw them collect three points at Scunthorpe - a result which cost Iron manager Russ Wilcox his job. The Yorkshire outfit have been using a new system which appears to be a midfield three with Richie Wellens almost playing in the hole as the fourth midfielder. Marc De Val plays as a holder to protect the back four, but they've only collected three clean sheets this term. 

Throw in the mix Donny's patchy form in September, which sums them up. A 0-3 loss, a 3-2 win and a 0-0 draw. Opta stats also reveal that Paul Dickov's side have failed to score in four of their last six League One fixtures. 

Fleetwood are the opposite, and this looks a similar game to the Notts County one above. The hosts again have shown how the promoted sides from last term (bar Scunthorpe) have adapted well to League One,  and they have yet to lose at Highbury this season. 

So far there has been a familiar pattern with teams heading to the Cod Army. They go with a game plan to stop them playing and frustrate, and I'm not sure that Doncaster are good enough to do that. 

In fact, Town's home record is very solid - admittedly four draws are too many, but that's 10 points so far and three clean sheets. Saturday's 2-1 loss at Colchester was a shade unfortunate, as manager Graham Alexander felt his team were never in any danger, but lacked the nous to see out the game. 

This comes down to consistency and inconsistency, which is why I want to stick with the solid Fleetwood, and throw in an under 2.5 bet too. 

Recommended Bet
Back Fleetwood to win @ 2.3811/8

Rochdale 1.855/6 v Gillingham 4.84/1, the draw 3.711/4

I don't like putting in too many odds-on selections, although I am very grateful to Bristol City for digging me slightly out of a whole last week at 1.9010/11, but the price of Rochdale looks fair enough considering the regressive nature of Gillingham recently. 

I put up the Gills last week at home to Scunthorpe at around 5/4 thinking their home form would be strong enough to see off a side second from bottom - but how wrong was I? The Iron collected a 3-0 win and Gillingham (who were down to 10 men) were quite frankly woeful. Now the Kent side are away, it's time to be against them. 

Boss Peter Taylor must be the latest under pressure, and I have written before that I am not totally convinced about him at this level. They haven't improved this season, despite a different style to Martin Allen's play last year, but the manager still believes in his squad. 

Goals are a problem for Gillingham; they've scored just five in nine games and have lost their last three. Striker Danny Kedwell might make the squad this weekend, although I am hoping he doesn't as a Rochdale backer. But overall their firepower is weak, and according to Opta, the Kent club have failed to score more than one goal in each of their last 10 against Rochdale. 

There might not be many goals in this one. Spotland hasn't been a feast this season, as the hosts have failed to score in three from five. In fact, the Dale have been far more potent on their travels with a 3-2 win at Orient and a 5-2 success at Crewe. I liked Rochdale's 1-0 victory against Coventry recently, as they looked nice and solid against a good team.

And that sways me, Rochdale may have lost three times on home soil, but Gillingham aren't scoring and look in a bit of trouble - especially away from the Priestfield. 

Recommended Bets
Back Rochdale to win @ 1.855/6
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11

Yeovil Town 3.259/4 v Swindon Town 2.285/4, the draw 3.505/2

Swindon didn't have a match last week due to the international call-ups, which is a big shame, as Mark Cooper's side are my favourite team in League One at the moment. The hidden gem of the division is getting noticed a bit more, and they are now 10.09/1 in the winner market. 

The Robins are a really progressive young side and the players seem to be getting better and better. They've already collected 21 points so far and they seem to have a lot of pace and options throughout the side. 

Town will be fresh too, without a League One match for two weeks, and their last victory was a devastating 2-1 win at Leyton Orient, with a performance described as 'outstanding' by Cooper. On-loan Birmingham defender Amari'i Bell played on the left-hand side, and the local press called their game-plan a 'rope-a-dope' style of success. 

Many opponents this term have tried to press Swindon high up the pitch to stop them playing, which has meant goalkeeper Wes Foderingham has used the ball more - and he has definitely improved his distribution. They do enjoy the ball, and according to Opta, Town have restricted their opponents to a league-low 72 shots in 2014/15.

At odds-against, I do think the away side look a good bet here, as they have won all three of their recent on the road matches. They have also scored nine in five, and in September, all of their games were over 2.5 goals. Whereas Yeovil have scored just four from six and they seem to have lost a bit of belief this term. 

Recommended Bet
Back Swindon Town to win @ 2.285/4 (Best Bet)

League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)

- 6.25 pts