Crewe boss Steve Davis is still searching for a win
Struggling Crewe Alexandra are once again in the spotlight this weekend, and their lack of goals makes their opponent Coventry City an appealing bet according to Alan Dudman, along with Gillingham and Bristol City in League One....
Gillingham 2.1211/10 v Scunthorpe United 3.8014/5, the draw 3.505/2
In a busy week at Glandford Park, Scunthorpe have sacked manager Russ Wilcox after their midweek JPT exit, but the league form of eight losses in 11 games proved to be the clincher and the downfall of Wilcox. Defender Andy Dawson and coach Tony Daws will be in charge for Saturday's trip to Kent, and their relegation odds of 2.01/1 are second behind Crewe 1.091/11 as favourites to go down.
Micky Adams has been mentioned in connection for the Iron job, but he was also installed as market leader (somewhere) for the vacant Orient position last week. He is fast becoming the 'Alan Curbishley' of League One (ie linked with every job). Bizarrely, Glenn Hoddle was quoted somewhere at 33/1. I'd want 3333/1 on that happening (with each way terms 1,2,3,4 too).
Without even going in to Scunthorpe's form (and I'll do that shortly), this really ought to be a match that Gillingham should win. Forget backing Peter Taylor's side on their travels (five losses in six), it's back at the Priestfield where we should be interested. With three wins against Peterborough, Yeovil and Crewe, plus a 2-2 draw with Swindon - Taylor's side are unbeaten at home and are simply a different animal.
Wilcox's replacements will have to address the problem of poor defending and poor decisions that have littered an abject season. These manifested themselves again on Saturday during the 1-2 defeat at home to Doncaster, but they certainly played better than the recent performance against Oldham. The Iron lined up a 4-3-2-1 and utilised a very narrow midfield trying to hit Rovers on the wings. They were compact, and I think they'll be exactly the same against a Gillingham side that have scored only six goals from their last nine.
But Scunny are in a bad trot, and unlike their fellow promoted sides from last term, they are really struggling with the step up to League One level. The only hope I can offer as a positive, is that Paddy Madden is a natural goalscorer, and can be lethal in the six-yard box.
Opta Stats
Cody McDonald has scored three times in three home appearances for Gillingham this season.
Gillingham have won five penalties this term in League One, a joint-high, but only two have been scored.
Having gone 14 games unbeaten away from home last season, Scunthorpe are now winless in seven on the road.
In-Play/Cash Out Trading Angles
The first job the new management team will have to address is the defending, therefore they will be as narrow as possible to defend for the first 45 minutes, without committing too many men going forward, it's a natural instinct for a new boss. This coupled with Gillingham's lack of goals, we should be looking for unders bets and low scoring markets. The Gills have only scored six in nine matches (as outlined previously) and are badly missing Danny Kedwell (who remains on the sidelines).
I would suggest getting to half-time with low scoring trades and the draw in the H/T market, but Gillingham's home record sways me to use the 1-0 correct score for the longer cash out option. The under 2.5 goals trades at 1.9110/11, which is slightly bigger than I expected.
Recommended Bet
Back Gillingham to win @ 2.1211/10
Bristol City 1.9010/11 v Chesterfield 4.30100/30, the draw 3.8014/5
City let me down for the clean sweep last weekend, or more so that pesky Romaine Sawyers at Walsall, who netted an 85th minute equaliser in the 1-1 stalemate at the Banks's. Actually Dean Smith's Midlanders deserved a point then, but the Robins hopefully won't make the same mistake again this Saturday.
The current price of 1.9010/11 is very attractive for the league leaders who have collected 25 points so far with an ultra impressive home record. I also think there is plenty of improvement to come from Steve Cotterill's side, especially in the ball retention stakes. They've really suffered against possession-based teams recently, but surely it's a good sign they are still picking up points.
The Ashton Gate club look very fit and physically are spot on, they press well and get the ball back fairly quickly. They need to be able to take the sting out of games, but their pace and power can overrun opponents at this level, and their ability to score.
Their home record reads WWWDW with three clean sheets and three over 2.5 goals affairs. Cotterill uses three centre-backs in a 3-5-2, although they were really pinned back against Walsall, and their wing-backs were in a flat back-five as they dropped deeper and deeper.
This match also looks a shoot-out between the two leading marksmen in League One. Bristol City's Aaron Wilbraham has eight, but Chesterfield's Eoin Doyle has already bagged 13.
In fact, the Spirerites have looked very exciting so far, achieving something of a highlight beating local rivals Sheffield United last weekend 3-2. Goalkeeper Tommy Lee was red-carded that day, but the decision has been overturned, and luckily he is now available for this Saturday.
But it's the goals that flow. Doyle has grown in confidence (unsurprisingly), and some of their good young players under the excellent manager Paul Cook have adjusted to this level with ease. Midfielder Sam Morsy pulls the strings in the middle of the park, and he stood out against the Blades seven days ago.
As good as Chesterfield are, I get the feeling that the hosts might just be too strong for a decent opponent, and City can maintain their position at the head of the table.
Opta Stats
Bristol City are one of four sides in the pyramid unbeaten this campaign and the only side in League One.
City have won three in a row at Ashton Gate. The last time they managed four consecutive league wins at home was February 2013.
Chesterfield have scored eight in their last three away league games at Bristol City, having failed to find the net in any of their previous six visits.
In-Play/ Cash Out Trading Angles
With Doyle and Wilbraham's goals, the market is with the over 2.5 at 1.784/5. Chesterfield have failed to score in just two games so far, whilst seven of their matches this season have hit the over 2.5 target. Their recent run of 13 goals scored in five makes them a serious player in this exciting affair.
However, the Cash Out option I prefer here will hopefully involve a late goal. City's last seven encounters have been a haven for a late strike. Goals on 85, 74, 89, 82, 83 and 90 minutes all in separate games means there will be chance for a braver layer to take on a scoreline with 15 minutes to go - remember, Bristol City are an extremely fit side who find the net.
Recommended Bet
Back Bristol City to win @ 1.9010/11 (Best Bet)
Crewe Alexandra 3.55n/a v Coventry City 2.1411/10, the draw 3.55n/a
I'm afraid it's Crewe again this week, but is there really anyone that wants to back the Alex at home at 3.55n/a? Now if you will offer me 7.06/1 that is another matter, and their form at the moment warrants that sort of price, and I reckon there will be a number of layers out there licking their lips at the thought of taking on the worst side in League One.
The Railwaymen are rock-bottom with four points, have conceded 29 goals in 11 games (with the worst ratio in England), and have suffered four straight defeats. I mentioned last week that confidence looks shot, and manager Steve Davis has drafted in a sports psychologist to address those issues amongst some players. One of those squad members is Brad Inman, who really should been figuring in the side at the moment considering he can create a goal - but he's featured once in five matches.
Davis used a new-look 3-5-2 last weekend at Bradford, but it was the same result, a 2-0 loss at Bradford. They defended better and looked more resilient, but once a goal was conceded, another followed, which seems to be their way. There was a bright spot however from Saturday, 17-year-old George Cooper made a fine impression on his full debut. He has a nice left foot with a bit of fight too, I wonder if he'll get another go against Coventry?
On the Sky Blues, it seems the fizz has gone out of their game since the return to the Ricoh last month. Last weekend they were held 2-2 at home to Crawley, although manager Steven Pressley thought 'three minutes of madness' cost them. Their form overall is poor, with just one victory from their last five matches with their away form even worse - with just two points collected in the same amount of games.
With this being an international week, there is a clue from the well-being of both sides. The Alex have forward Marcus Haber, who has opted to join up with Canada, despite the need for him. Whereas his fellow international strike partner Simeon Jackson has decided to stay with Coventry as he stated it's not good to miss two games. The Midlanders also have Reda Johnson back, a hugely influential defender, and he has opted out of a trip around the world with Benin to stay and fight for League One points.
If 'mind games' were used and anyone cared for them, Pressley wins here.
This simply comes down to who can score. Crewe are struggling in front of goal, whereas Simeon Jackson and Josh McQuoid certainly should make their mark on this game - both have played at higher levels and both are very speedy. The visitors have five forwards to choose from, whilst Davis can only dream of such luxuries.
Opta Stats
Coventry's win over the Railwaymen in March ended a run of eight league games without a victory against them (D2 L6).
The Alex have failed to score in their last three league games, the last time they went four without finding the net was in 2008.
No player has had more shots without scoring this season than Coventry's Jim O'Brien (17).
In-Play/ Cash Out Trading Angles
I highlighted last week how Crewe's games create a consistent pattern. Bar the 6-1 mauling at the hands of MK Dons, the Alex have got to half-time at 0-0 from four of their last six matches, and the other one produced a 44th minute goal which broke the deadlock before the break. Basically Crewe will have to cling on for dear life, but they usually get found out in the second-half.
The half-time/full-time market price of Draw/Coventry looks very exciting at 5.905/1, and this looks an outstanding value bet. The correct score odds of 0-0 at 14.50n/a represents a superb trading opportunity too, this can be used to 'get out' before the interval, and the green book can be used to back 0-1 and 0-2.
Recommended Bet
Back Coventry City to win @ 2.1411/10
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 5.15 pts
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