Football Bet of the Day: Expect a Colombian cracker

Today's bet is from Barranquilla, birthplace of songstress Shakira

Kevin Hatchard's been scouring the globe for the best bets, and he's settled on a selection from the Colombian Primera B.

CD Barranquilla v Real Cartagena
Thursday 16 October, 21:00

Rarely have we been so pleased to see a goalless draw. Betis and Lugo both drew blanks in the Copa del Rey, and we landed a winner by saying No in the Both Teams To Score market. Three winners in three days, but there's no time for complacency now, boys and girls.

For the first time this week we're dipping into South America, and a Colombian second-tier clash between CD Barranquilla and Real Cartagena.

Barranquilla - the Reds of Curramba - are rock-bottom of the table, having won just three of their 15 games so far. As you might expect, they have the division's worst defensive record, having leaked 27 goals already.

Real Cartagena are known as The Heroic Team, which sounds like a low-budget version of The Avengers that went straight to DVD, possibly starring Dean Gaffney and Michael Greco. They have been only mildly heroic this season, managing to stay safely in mid-table. There is a stark difference between Real's home form and their results on their travels - they have 22 of their 24 points this season on their own turf.

In the Match Odds market, the odds are understandably chunky for both the home and away wins. Barranquilla are bottom, but all three of their victories this term have come at home, and they are 2.789/5 for the outright win. Real are 2.3811/8 favourites, but I can't support a team with such an atrocious away record.

Of more interest is the Over 2.5 Goals market, which is priced at a tempting 2.245/4. Barranquilla are conceding an average of nearly two goals per game, and seven of their last ten outings have featured three goals or more. Real Cartagena are also an entertaining watch - five of their last ten league matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals, and if we take away the first three games of that sequence it's five of the last seven. I couldn't confidently tell you who's going to win it, but there should be a fair few goals.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.245/4

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 38

Points Returned: 39.86

P/L: +1.86 points