Aston Villa v Man City: Away win looks nailed on but dangerous Delph is the value

Delph has been underrated by the markets

Lewis Jones thinks the accident-prone Villa centre-half pairing will struggle to keep City quiet but is putting his faith in a big-price first goalscorer to bring the home crowd to their feet early...

Aston Villa v Man City
Saturday, KO 17:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Aston Villa

Paul Lambert will have key striker Christian Benteke available for selection for the first time this season following his recovery from six months out with an Achilles problem.

He has scored 34 goals in 67 games for Villa and played a key role in their survival in the Premier League since his 7m switch from Genk in 2012. However, despite scoring in midweek on his comeback for the club's Under-21 side, the big Belgian is unlikely to be rushed back and a 30-minute cameo is expected from the bench.

It's not all good news on the injury front though as captain Ron Vlaar is still struggling with a calf problem. More on the effect that has on Villa's chances later.

Man City

The only thing consistent about Manuel Pellegrini's side at the moment is their inconsistency. They travel to Villa Park with a recent record of two wins, two defeats and three draws in their last seven matches across all competitions. However, City have lost just one of their last 16 Premier League away games (W11 D4 L1) and punters will be keen to get them on side at short prices.

Match Odds

Man City have failed to really ignite as yet this season. The style of their victories has been ruthless rather than barnstorming.

In my opinion, where possible, they can be taken on at odds-on.

However, I'm not sure Villa have the defensive nous to keep the City attack quiet or the creative edge to create enough chances to trouble Joe Hart.

The chaps at Opta tell us that despite sitting pretty in sixth place Aston Villa have attempted just nine shots on target in six Premier League games this season; fewer than any other side while they have shipped six goals up the other end in their last two matches.

This has coincided with Vlaar's absence from the team. Although Nathan Baker and Philippe Senderos kept a clean sheet at Liverpool, they were rarely tested that day by a declining Reds frontline.

When tasked with facing sharp, world-class movement, this pair falls to pieces, almost looking around wishing Vlaar was there to mop up their inadequacies.

City have scored in 18 of their last 19 Premier League games and it's almost impossible to see the Vlaar-less Villa shutting them out here.

Although it's not my official tip, the 1.538/15 for an away win should yield maximum reward. Villa backers, who will be quick to tell you that the midlands side won this corresponding fixture 3-2 last season, can get 7.613/2 for their money and the draw can be punted at 4.57/2.

First Goalscorer

One of my favourite players to watch in the Premier League is the bet to follow here for a first goalscorer at 26.025/1. If I was to give you 11 guesses to suss out who I'm on about (and I hadn't just told you the odds I'm hoping to get matched at), you wouldn't find the answer.

Sergio Aguero? No. David Silva? Close, but no. Frank Lampard? Please.

Fabian Delph is my man and the England manager obviously thinks the same way as me although whether having a brain similar to Roy Hodgson is a good thing or bad thing is another matter altogether.

The young Villa midfielder has added consistency to his game over the last six months and is now a mainstay in manager Lambert's engine room.

Delph is a rare breed in the English game. He's quick, got great technique and can move the ball very astutely around the pitch.

Similar to Jack Wilshere but with one major difference, he has an eye for goal.

Although defining him as clinical would be wrong, Delph, when his price trades around this level, is a superb value call for a first goalscorer wager as we're likely to get a good run for our money.

The Villa midfielder loves taking aim from range as exampled by his nine shots on goal in the Premier League this season. He went closest to opening his account this time last week at Chelsea, bending a 25-yarder just wide of the far post.

He got that goalscorer feeling three times last campaign, bagging at Southampton and in home games against West Brom and Chelsea.

This City side allow teams to have opportunities and if they give Delph a sniff of space outside the box, he will be letting fly at Hart.

Although Villa have it all to do in the outright market, at 26.025/1 I'm willing to pay to find out whether Delph finds the required purity to beat his England teammate with the first goal.

Recommended Bet
Back Fabian Delph to score first @ 26.025/1 - 1pt

Lewis Jones Premier League P/L

Staked: 19pts
Returned: 23.6pts
P/L: +4.6pts