Against All Odds: Dour encounter at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa

Can Newell's Old Boys challenge River Plate for the title?

Paul Robinson is on a roll right now and following a winner in France yesterday, he's turning his attentions to Argentina tonight.

Newells v Banfield
Tuesday September 30, 00:30 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Newell's Old Boys are one of only two teams still undefeated in the Argentinian Primera Division. Four wins and four draws from their eight matches to date has them up in fourth place but victory in their game in hand tonight would see them move into a clear second.

The goals have dried up a touch in recent weeks for Gustavo Raggio's side as they've netted just three on their last four outings - failing to score more than once on each occasion. The defence have been bailing the strikers out though as they conceded just once during that period. 'La Lepra' have kept four clean sheets already this term, two of which came in their last two in front of their own fans.

Banfield were promoted to this division as champions of Primera B. While they've made an okay start - two wins and a draw from eight fixtures - they are currently second from bottom. It's a very tight league though and if they somehow managed to win here, they'd move up into mid-table.

As far as the goals go, with six scored and 10 conceded, their matches this year are averaging exactly two goals per 90 minutes. Like their opponents, the strikers haven't been firing of late as Matas Almeyda's men have found the net only twice in seven and a half hours of football. Interestingly, despite losing three of their last four, they haven't conceded more than once in a game since a 3-2 defeat to Defensa y Justica back in August - a run of six fixtures.

The most likely scoreline here is 1-0 to the hosts as the visitors will set up for the 0-0 and Newell's aren't exactly showing more prowess in front of goal. That's why, with over 1.5 goals trading at around the 1.4740/85 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Newells v Banfield @ 1.4740/85

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 261 pts
Returned: 276.73 pts
P/L: + 15.73 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)