Josh Brownhill (left) can play a big part in Preston's promotion push
Alan Dudman returns after the summer off, and with excitement levels renewed for the new League One campaign, highlights some of the best ante-post wagers for the new campaign....
Even though the summer football vacuum was partly filled with the World Cup (although I admit I lost a bit of interest after the group matches), nothing beats settling down on a Friday with the Sky Football League preview show recorded in what seems to be the canteen of their Isleworth studio. Is there anything better than the open-shirted Garry Birtles chatting about Oldham Athletic over a skinny latte? In fact, with the refreshment thrown in, it would probably be my ideal job.
You might like to know I am writing this from the Betfair canteen with a frothy coffee, and I am still waiting for Birtles to show.
Unlike the Championship (which is previewed by my colleague Mike Norman), where 14 teams are possibly worth a shout for the title, realistically in League One, the field can be narrowed down to four or five. There is no Wolves this time around, who if I am not mistaken, were about 3.02/1 on the ante-post market in 2013. So it's my job to unearth those bets that look over-priced and under-priced, and finally exorcise the ghost of 'that Bournemouth bet' from two seasons ago.
Promotion
Title favourites Sheffield United are 2.65n/a summer market leaders. The fact they are so short offers very little room for error, and certainly not much elasticity for trading. At that sort of price, I am not the sort of punter that likes to wait 10 months to get paid on a 6/4 shot (although it will be worth the wait for Colchester, see below). Preston, Bristol City and Peterborough all represent equally poor value at roughly 5/2 the trio on Betfair, although I would prefer the Posh out of that lot, trading at 3.4012/5.
I think this is the sort of bet that can be viewed as the chance to green your book to lock in a small profit by Christmas. Remember last season Leyton Orient were the pacesetters and were still flying high around December time. That's the sort of bet in these markets that appeals, but the O's don't this time around, at 4.2016/5.
Coventry City look interesting at 8.07/1, despite losing a couple of their bright young things during the summer. Manager Steven Pressley is more than a waistcoat and a shiny thick head of hair, and if he can gel his new-look side with the experienced Reda Johnson at the back, they might get a run at the top six.
More of a flyer would be the unfashionable Walsall, managed superbly by Dean Smith. The Saddlers have outperformed their financial power and squad strength since Smith took over, and they hovered around the play-off places all season. They are also very streaky, to once again highlight the risky nature of this play, but odds of 12.011/1 reflect that. But at a price you want something that can out-run those odds, and I think the Midlanders might be able to.
Relegation
To me, this looks the most clear cut bet of them all.
Colchester United at 2.6613/8 looks the strongest idea of a team to fill one of those four places, and I can see their manager Joe Dunne under pressure very early on. The Essex side have a lot of young players, and for a club that narrowly avoided relegation last term, I can't see how they can improve if they have lost their captain Brian Wilson.
In fact, life was never a beach for the Essex boys (sorry for that pun) in 2013-14, with some heavy defeats on various poor runs. Dunne really galvanised the side towards the end to fend off the drop, but can they do it again with a weaker team and a light defence? I don't think so.
Top Six Finish
Just like the top two market, this looks fairly illiquid before the start of the season. If a team can get off to 'an Orient' early on, than the price has gone, or it can enable you to make a judgement from two or three months of action and get involved around November time. This area looks a chance to assess the promoted and relegated teams.
Doncaster 2.0421/20 and Barnsley 2.245/4 don't make masses of appeal, who both dropped down from the Championship, whilst Yeovil 2.3411/8 will be so much happier in this division under the excellent Gary Johnson.
I will definitely be taking a back-seat view for a couple of months on the promoted teams. I can't profess to be as au fait with Chesterfield 4.03/1, Rochdale 4.03/1, Fleetwood 5.04/1 and Scunthorpe 4.507/2, so it will be a case of reviewing their prices in a couple of months.
Top Goalscorer
If Peterborough striker Britt Assombalonga 7.06/1 were guaranteed to stay at London Road this season then he is a bet, unfortunately for man that hit 24 League One goals last term he will always be a target for a higher level. Reports are suggesting Nottingham Forest are interested, and I would be staggered if they were the only Championship club that could make a move in August.
Bristol City's Sam Baldock also hit 24 goals in the division and was crucial in moving the Robins away from the drop zone under Steve Cotterill, who engineered their safety from 24th to 12th in the table. Baldock is trading at 8.6015/2 and is far likelier to stay at Ashton Gate than Assombalonga would at Peterborough. The Robins frontman is also a class apart at this level, and was signed by West Ham from the MK Dons, and the Dons never ever replaced him. Unfortunately he has also been linked with a move to a Championship club, with Brighton the latest reportedly keen to take his services.
Both have been easy in the market due to speculation, moving between a point and a point and a half from the start of the week.
In my ante-post preview from seasons gone by, I flagged up Cody McDonald at Coventry at about 50.049/1, as there were glowing reports about him in the non-league game. McDonald took time to find his feet there, but settled down really well at Gillingham last season to bag 17 goals and there should be more to come, and odds of 36.035/1 are decent considering he played in a struggling team last term. Although the Gills may struggle again this season.
I also like the angle of Will Grigg 16.015/1 on loan at the MK Dons. His pitiful goal return of just four at Brentford shows he barely got a look in during their promotion campaign. But this is his level, and he hit 20 goals from 46 appearances for Walsall the year before, and hopefully he can do a good impression of Patrick Bamford. And at least we know he'll be staying in this division for the campaign.
Winner
Rather sadly I have been watching any kind of news concerning Cardiff City's John Brayford for the last two months, hoping he would join Sheffield United. However, it looks as they he might get a run at right-back with the Welsh club, which is a blow, as he was the best player in League One last term whilst on loan at Bramall Lane, and looked two divisions better than anyone else.
I initially wanted to back the Blades, due to Nigel Clough's stunning turnaround when taking over from David Weir last year. Clough transformed a side from one threatened with relegation, to one that had an outside shot at the play-offs. This coincided with an FA Cup run to the semi-finals, and a clean sheet record of 15 from February.
However, odds of 5.709/2 are too short, considering they look unlikely to bag Brayford, and also have lost Harry Maguire, the big centre-back who has signed for Hull City for around 2million.
Preston North End look a better bet at 9.50n/a and can of course be used as a better trade. Last season they reached the play-off semi-finals under Simon Grayson, who has such a fine record in League One. Their summer business has not exactly been exhilarating with Kyel Reid and Andy Little (ex Rangers), but they already had a fine squad with some very exciting youngsters. I expect plenty of good things from midfielder Josh Brownhill this term, a slight ball player, with an eye for goal and ability to drift past players. They drew too many times last season, so they need to address that, but with all the strikers including the non-stop Joe Garner, they can hopefully all chip in with a few.
Recommended Bets
Back Preston North End to win League One @ 9.50n/a
Back Colchester United for relegation @ 2.265/4
Back Cody McDonald 3635/1 and Will Grigg 16.015/1 for top goalscorer
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