Sheffield United boss Nigel Clough
The League One season begins on Saturday, and Alan Dudman is sticking with a trio of familiar names to get off to a good start, including Sheffield United for the live Sky TV game......
Sheffield United 2.0421/20 v Bristol City 4.2016/5, the draw 3.505/2
Live on Sky Sports One, 12:15
Both these teams figure prominently in the League One title winner market. The Blades are the favourites, and I have already aired my view on their price in my ante-post column. Bristol City meanwhile are 8.6015/2, which I am not massively convinced about.
This will be the fourth successive season in the third tier for the Yorkshire club, and the quality of summer signing this time around arguably has them in better shape. Under Nigel Clough, United moved from 21st to seventh last term and also gained a place in the FA Cup semi-final, and now have nine new signings to go to war with.
I always felt Clough's side last term lacked a goalscorer and someone to get on the end of plenty of crosses, so it's interesting they have snapped up Michael Higdon from NEC Nijmegen. He should fit in well, although I am not entirely sure about his 100 per cent match fitness ahead of this Saturday. His goals will be crucial for a title launch, although scoring goals in Holland is the equivalent of ages in 'dog years'.
They look fine in midfield, but Clough needs to replace centre-back Harry Maguire (who has joined Hull City), and that sort of leader is a must before the deadline closes in August.
Bristol City had a similar profile last season to Sheffield United. They struggled near the foot of the table, and Steve Cotterill came in and took them to mid-table. They certainly had goals in them in 2013/14, especially with League One's leading marksman Sam Baldock. Recent transfer speculation suggests that Brighton are leading the way for his signature, although Cotterill said: "Sam seems really happy, he hasn't given me one indication that he wants to leave."
The Robins have made six summer signings including the excellent Luke Freeman from Stevenage Borough, who always looked too good for the Hertfordshire side. He can create (mostly from the left), and seems happy in a midfield three. I also hope Jay Emmanuel-Thomas reverts to an out-and-out striker, rather than playing behind Baldock (if he stays).
The Robins could have an injury worry concerning defender Karleigh Osborne, whilst Sheffield United's problems appear greater, with five mentioned as doubtful, including Stefan Scougall and whispering Bob Harris.
Key Opta Stats
The Blades have lost just one of their last 11 games on the opening weekend (W4 D6) and have won each of the last three in League One.
United won all six points against Bristol City last term, scoring four and conceding none.
Best Cash Out/Trading Play
It's possible that Steve Cotterill would be more pragmatic than attacking for Saturday's game, and as always playing against a big club, the importance of keeping it tight for 20-25 minutes against the home team is crucial. The fact that OPTA stats point to Sheffield United drawing six of their 11 opening day clashes, it certainly will be an option to use the draw bet at 3.505/2 to trade. This can be doubled up by getting involved in trying to green up the 0-0 to about 25 minutes.
In Summary
As Sheffield United are title favourites, then 2.0421/20 is an OK price for their first home encounter of the season. The same can be said for Bristol City at 4.2016/5, which is too big considering their prominence in the title market. However, I was quite impressed watching Clough's team last term, especially when the played Preston off the park in the live TV game. Plus the fact they kept so many clean sheets in a fabulous run 12 months ago, means I am sticking with the hosts.
Recommended Bet
Back Sheffield United to win @ 2.0421/20
Leyton Orient 2.0621/20 v Chesterfield 4.10n/a, the draw 3.55n/a
Orient were my pick for the play-off final against Rotherham, and at 2-0 up early in the Wembley game, I didn't envisage ever writing about them in the League One column again. But here they are once more, minus Barry Hearn and plus new Italian owner Francesco Becchetti, and a new structure aided by a sporting director to boot.
Manager Russell Slade lost ever-present winger Moses Odubajo to Brentford during the summer for a fee of 1million, but has really improved the squad with new players. Forwards Darius Henderson and Jay Simpson have arrived at Brisbane Road, whilst Joby McAnuff is perhaps the best signing from Reading and I think he'll do really well.
Remember last term the O's got off to a flyer, winning their first seven League One games on the spin including home victories of 3-0, 2-0, 3-2 and 5-1. Although this is a different team and that stat is rendered pointless, my point is that they look stronger this time around.
Chesterfield are newcomers having won the League Two title under manager Paul Cook, and I will need a good month or so to assess their strengths and how they can perform in the third tier. The Spirerites are 40.039/1 to win the title, which gives you a rough idea, but signings of Nathan Smith and Daniel Jones (Port Vale) are a million miles away from Orient's calibre of incomings.
Key Opta Stats
Chesterfield were the top scorers in League Two last term with 71 and managed to keep the tightest defence as well (41). They have lost just one of their last five opening matches in the third tier.
Leyton Orient scored 49 times in the second-half of matches last season, more than any other League One team. Orient also have won just one of their last four matches to start a league campaign.
Best Cash Out/Trading Play
With the Opta stat that Orient scored more second-half goals than any other team, and the fact that Chesterfield can score; if you are weighing up an outright bet on the hosts, than ask for 2.809/5 to 3.02/1 in running.
In Summary
The fact that the Londoners have signed players from the Championship this summer, and with pedigrees likes Henderson and McAnuff, they have the look of a much stronger team than the newly promoted Chesterfield. Orient will have a goal in them and I would certainly favour the over 2.5 goals as Henderson had a one in four ratio with Forest. But the hosts look my best bet this weekend at odds-against.
Recommended Bet
Back Orient to win @ 2.0421/20 (best bet)
Rochdale 3.052/1 v Peterborough United 2.466/4, the draw 3.505/2
This looks a tricky game for the Posh, who blew their chance of promotion twice last term. Firstly by having an early season loss of form, and that blip cost them automatic. Then their non-show in the play-off semi-finals against Leyton Orient, where their usual attacking zip had deserted them.
Peterborough have to prepare for Saturday minus their star forward Britt Assombalonga, who has joined Nottingham Forest for a hefty transfer fee. This is nothing new for Darren Ferguson, who has lost Craig Mackail-Smith and Dwight Gayle for decent money in the past. Although Assombalonga was quick and powerful (aswell as hitting 33 goals in 58 matches), they still have some classy attacking players and they might actually be a bit more dynamic going forward rather than rely on just one man.
Ferguson has had to cut the squad from 26 to 20, but they have invested in a new training ground facility. They also started last season well with six wins from their opening eight games, and had their usual goal numbers with early matches netting them a four, a five and a six.
Up front I see Kyle Vassell and Conor Washington starting, and the latter could have a good campaign. Whilst new winger Jon Taylor looks doubtful with an ankle injury for Saturday.
Rochdale are League One newcomers and trade at 3.55n/a to go back down. Manager Keith Hill has got experience in this division, and by all accounts they played some decent football last term.
Hill's main problem is how he replaces 19 goal forward Scott Hogan (who has joined Brentford) and influential Peter Cavanagh, although to cushion those blows, a host of players who gained promotion last season agreed new deals to stay at Spotland.
Best Cash Out/Trading Play
As usual with Peterborough, the overs markets always feature prominently, and the layers have taken no chances by chalking up the 2.5 at 1.784/5. This is normally too short as you would expect at best 1.9520/21, but this is a 'Posh price'. The over 3.5 goals is more interesting at 3.1085/40, as a two early goals give you great platform to make a profit, one early goal means you can at least ensure your stake.
Key Opta Stats
No team in the Football League scored more penalties than Peterborough in 2013/4 (10).
Posh have drawn none of their last 12 League One games on the opening weekend of a new season.
Only promoted sides Rotherham (34) and Wolves (26) scored more goals in the opening 30 minutes of matches last term than Peterborough (25).
In Summary
Like the previous game, I just cannot get excited about Rochdale's summer signings, such as forward Calvin Andrew who has never been prolific. Plus I quite like Peterborough away from home, not only because their pitch is terrible (although not an issue in August), but teams would often try and sit deep and defend at London Road, so hopefully this will be more open to showcase their attacking gifts.
Recommended Bet
Back Peterborough to win @ 2.506/4
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий