German Supercup Betting: Back Lewandowski to haunt his former employers

Robert Lewandowski has made a sparkling start with Bayern

Borussia Dortmund face Bayern Munich on Wednesday evening in a mouthwatering Supercup clash, and Kevin Hatchard thinks a former Dortmund star could make all the difference...

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
Wednesday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Dortmund 3.45n/a, Bayern 2.245/4, the draw 3.7511/4

The glory of Germany's World Cup success is still fresh in the memory, but the country's best two clubs are now ready to consign Brazil 2014 to the memory box, and renew their increasingly bitter rivalry. Although friendships may have been forged between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich players this summer, BVB coach Jurgen Klopp has insisted they will count for nothing when the clubs do battle for the season's first domestic honour, the German Supercup.

Dortmund and Bayern are unquestionably the giants of German football. They have won the last five Bundesliga titles between them, and the last three German Cups. They are contesting the Supercup for the third season running, and they met in the Champions League final at Wembley in 2013. Bayern's acquisition of Dortmund stars Mario Gotze and Robert Lewandowski has intensified the animosity between the two clubs, and there has recently been a spat between Bayern chairman Karl-Heinz Rummenigge and BVB supremo Hans-Joachim Watzke, after Rummenigge made mischievous comments about a release clause in the contract of Dortmund star Marco Reus.

Last season, Bayern coach Pep Guardiola used the Supercup to experiment, and he paid the price with a chastening 4-2 defeat. Keeper Manuel Neuer and defensive bedrock Dante were both omitted, and in their absence Bayern's rearguard melted away at Signal Iduna Park. The Catalan schemer is unlikely to make the same mistake two seasons running, and midfield general Bastian Schweinsteiger has already warned his team-mates that a complacent attitude going into this fixture won't be tolerated.

Although Klopp will be keen to strike a blow ahead of the Bundesliga's big kick-off, he knows the result will count for little in the title race. Dortmund won last year's curtain-raiser, but went on to finish 19 points adrift of Bayern, who secured the title by the end of March. Those who have a fondness for German football, but no loyalty to Bayern, are hoping for a much closer race this term.

Team News

Lewandowski's defection from Dortmund to Bayern is hugely significant. Not only have BVB lost a man who scored 92 goals for them in just 165 games, but Bayern have gained a world-class striker who has looked incredibly sharp in pre-season. From delicate lobs to thumping volleys, the 25-year-old Pole has unveiled his armoury in the last few weeks, and he is fresh after a full summer off.

To make matters worse for Dortmund, they will be without German internationals Mats Hummels and Marco Reus. Hummels soldiered on through Germany's World Cup campaign despite an ongoing knee problem, while an ankle injury shattered Reus' World Cup dream. Both are back in full training, but are highly unlikely to play a part on Wednesday evening. Midfield regulator Ilkay Gundogan is still out with a long-term and increasingly worrying back injury, and although Neven Subotic and Jakub Blaszczykowski are back from serious injuries, they aren't match fit.

Bayern right-back Rafinha has been sidelined for a month by an ankle problem. Skipper Philipp Lahm could revert to right-back from his midfield role, especially after performing so well in that defensive position in Brazil. Franck Ribery is highly unlikely to feature because of a problem with a patellar tendon. Bayern have also been dealt a blow with news that Thiago has suffered yet another injury setback, and could miss the first couple of months of the campaign.

Match Odds

When these two meet, Dortmund's odds always look a shade too big, but Bayern are actually justifiable favourites to win the game. They broke the curse of Signal Iduna Park last season with a thumping 3-0 victory in the Bundesliga, and although BVB won the reverse at the Allianz Arena by the same scoreline, the title race was done and dusted by then. In the teams' most recent meeting, the German Cup final, Bayern won 2-0 in extra-time.

Bayern have largely looked impressive in pre-season, and although both teams are missing key players, the Bavarians look better placed to cope with those absences. Dortmund are still trying to bed in new signings like Matthias Ginter, Ciro Immobile and Adrian Ramos, and the team was humiliated 4-0 by Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday. It would be easy to dismiss the result as meaningless, but Dortmund's defence was torn to shreds, the midfield was overrun, and the attack created very little. If BVB don't sharpen up, they could be in for a tough evening against the champions, and I can't help leaning towards an away win at 2.245/4.

Over 2.5 Goals

Three of the clubs' four clashes last season featured at least three goals, and these early-season encounters are often haphazard because teams are still finding their feet tactically and physically. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.684/6, and that's probably about right, especially when you consider how badly Dortmund defended at Anfield.

To Score

There's been no indication that Lewandowski will be pulled out of the firing line in the way that Mario Gotze was after his return to Dortmund with Bayern, and if "Lewy" does start he has to be worth considering in the To Score market at 2.1411/10. Dortmund looked really vulnerable at set-pieces at Anfield, so if powerful aerial threat Dante is named in the starting XI, he's worth a dart at 7.26/1. On the Dortmund side of things, last season's Serie A top scorer Immobile is 2.6613/8.

Recommended Bets

Back Bayern Munich to win at 2.245/4
Back Robert Lewandowski to score at 2.1411/10

Kevin is our regular Bundesliga columnist, and he'll be commentating on Bundesliga matches throughout the season for talkSPORT and TuneIn - for details of coverage you can follow him on Twitter @kevinhatchard