Football Bet of the Day: You shouldn't have to spend too long waiting for Godoy to score

Godoy Cruz fans are hoping to cheer an away win tonight

Kevin Hatchard has the reins back in his hands, and is ready to take us on another wild ride, starting with a trip to Argentina.

And where do you lot think you've been, eh? Swanning around the world with that Tobias Gourlay, I'll bet. While he was taking you off to South Africa and Ukraine, I was left with no excuse to get me out of washing dishes and changing nappies at home (I have an 11-month old - don't start panicking about me wearing nappies).

Ah well, I suppose you're all forgiven. As a gesture of goodwill, I'll take you to Argentina to start the week for a top-flight clash between Quilmes and Godoy Cruz (19:15 start).

The reason for this trip to South America is the chunky price of 2.6813/8 on offer for Over 2.5 Goals. There are statistical reasons why the market is so insistent that we won't see the net bulge too often - in the previous half-season Quilmes netted just 16 goals in 19 games, while Godoy Cruz scored 23 goals in the same period.

Ok, nothing to get the pulses racing there. However, when we look at some of the more recent evidence, the picture changes slightly. In the first round of league matches this season, Pablo Quatrocchi's Quilmes were beaten 3-1 at Rosario Central, while Mendoza-based Godoy Cruz opened up with a thumping 3-0 win over Banfield.

If we stretch a little further back, we are given yet more encouragement. If you include their Copa Argentina exit to Defensa y Justicia, Godoy Cruz have seen seven of their last ten matches feature at least three goals, including the last four. Quilmes have shipped seven goals in two games this term (they lost 4-0 to Banfield in the Copa Argentina last week), and if we look at their last ten outings in all competitions, we see that six of them have contained three goals or more, including the last three.

I'm always a bit surprised (and excited) to see Over 2.5 Goals trading at anywhere above 2.56/4, and on this occasion the recent results of both clubs suggest 2.6813/8 is way too big a price.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Quilmes v Godoy Cruz at 2.6813/8

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 7

Points Returned: 8.82

P/L: +1.82 points