John Isner and Kevin Anderson look set for a long battle tonight
There's no rest for the players on the ATP Tour, as they move from Toronto to Cincinnati for the Western and Southern Open, which begins in earnest today. Sean Calvert has picked out two value bets for Monday in Cincy...
After a thoroughly bizarre week in Toronto, the ATP World Tour heads to the United States for the second of the back-to-back Masters 1000 events.
Anyone that backed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win the Rogers Cup pre-tournament at prices north of 10099/1 and up to 180179/1 must either have been bonkers or psychic, with the Frenchman showing nothing at all for a very long time on tour.
Yet, he put that aside, and defeated Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer for the loss of just one set to land a second Masters 1000 crown, six years after his first.
Let's assume that things are going to be a little more 'normal' this week in Cincy at the Western and Southern Masters, where we play in hot, humid conditions on Decoturf outdoor hard courts.
It tends to be quick here, with players commenting last year on how tough it is to return serve on this fast, high bouncing surface that should favour the more aggressive players.
And one of those is Jack Sock, who I think has at least a 50/50 chance of beating Tommy Robredo today in these conditions, which makes his price of around the 2.466/4 mark a bit of value.
Sock is in good form and confidence right now and he landed an easy winner for us last week in beating Jurgen Melzer and if he repeats that sort of level he could be too much for Tommy, who traditionally struggles against big servers.
Famously, Tommy lost all 11 of his matches against Andy Roddick, winning one set in the process, and he's 0-7 against John Isner, Ivo Karlovic and Milos Raonic combined.
Sock may not be quite in that category of server, but he's not too far away and in quick conditions he can get the better of Robredo, who has been very inconsistent this season.
We didn't get much luck with our set one 7-6 bets last week, but surely Kevin Anderson and John Isner will dish one up in their 1.30am UK time clash.
Any insomniacs reading will find solace in this one, with rallies likely to be at a premium between these two, who have produced nine tie breaks in their last 10 sets against each other in all competitions.
Only one of their 10 career meetings has failed to produce a tie break and their most recent clash in Atlanta last year in similarly hot and humid conditions on a hard court ended 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 to Isner.
Isner has a 30-16 tie break record in 2014, while Anderson's mark this season is only 11-11, so the edge would have to go to the American, who made the final here last year.
The price of 4.03/1 about Isner winning the opener on a tie break has to be decent value statistically and hopefully Anderson will have put to the back of his mind the horrific choke that lost him the match against Dimitrov last week.
Sock and Isner 7-6 look the best value on the card today on what could be one of those frustrating rain delayed days where they're on and off trying to avoid heavy showers.
Recommended Bets
Back Sock to beat Robredo at 2.466/4
Back Isner to win set one 7-6 at 4.03/1
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