Against All Odds: Salvadoran shutout in the Copa do Brasil

Bahia have probably forgotten how to celebrate a goal

It's Copa do Brasil action for Paul Robinson tonight as he thinks the second leg clash between Bahia and Corinthians will be a low-scoring affair.

Bahia v Corinthians
Thursday August 7, 02:00 BST
Live on Premier Sports

Bahia are enduring a miserable campaign as they are second from bottom in the league and are practically out of this competition following a 3-0 defeat in the first leg a fortnight ago. Things haven't been the same since Cristvo Borges left the club, and his replacement, Marquinhos Santos, was dismissed last week. Mrcio Arajo is the new man in charge but it remains to be seen if he can turn things around.

The Salvadoran outfit are struggling in front of goal and they've now netted only three times in nine outings. They wouldn't be doing too badly if they could improve just slightly in the attacking areas as they only conceded more than two themselves on one occasion during that period.

Corinthians are the go to team if you're looking for an unders bet as last season practically all of their matches finished with two goals or less - with 22 of their 38 going under 1.5 - and while they have since changed manager, that pattern has continued this year.

Mano Menezes' side have already had half a dozen matches finish with one goal or fewer and their games are averaging a mere 1.62 goals per 90 minutes. With a 3-0 lead already secured, I expect 'Timo' to just shut up shop and soak up any pressure from their opponents with relative ease.

It wouldn't surprise me if this finished 0-0 so with over 1.5 trading at around the 1.574/7 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Bahia v Corinthians @ 1.574/7

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 208 pts
Returned: 213.23 pts
P/L: + 5.23 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)