Against All Odds: Paysandu to keep it tight

Coritiba could do with a win to boost morale

It should be a routine win for Coritiba in the Copa do Brasil tonight but Paul Robinson thinks that it will only be a narrow one.

Coritiba v Paysandu
Friday August 1, 01:00 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Coritiba are having a poor campaign to date as they are down in the relegation zone after a dozen games in Serie A. While they have at least made it through to this round of the Copa do Brasil, they haven't faced anyone of note yet and they will again be pleased that they have drawn a poor side.

It's the goal aspect of things we're interested in tonight though as although the market is suggesting we'll be in for some, I'm not overly convinced. Since the season began, five of Coritiba's six at home have gone under 2.5 - including the home leg of their cup tie with minnows, CENE.

Paysandu were relegated from Serie B last term so they are now plying their trade in Brazil's third tier. Things haven't been going smoothly even at that lower level as the Belem based club are ninth of 10 after eight fixtures.

Mazola Junior's men have scored eight and conceded 11 to give their games an average of 2.38 goals each time and while they've netted two themselves in four of their last five on the road, it's doubtful that they will at Couto Pereira.

This is the first leg so neither side will be in a rush to press the action. All things considered, at around the 1.75/7 mark, I have to make over 2.5 goals my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Coritiba v Paysandu @ 1.75/7 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 202 pts
Returned: 208.59 pts
P/L: + 6.59 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)