Against All Odds: Join the queue to lay Joinville

Greetings from Brazil

There's second tier action from Brazil tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that odds-on favourite, Joinville, have to be opposed at home to Sampaio Correa.

Joinville v Sampaio Correa
Wednesday August 6, 01:00 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video

Joinville are up in fourth place in Serie B after 14 fixtures but things were looking so much better just a few short weeks ago. Three defeats in their last three outings has left them on the ropes and the worst part about it is that they were beaten by the likes of Bragantino who are in the relegation zone and mid-table fodder, ABC.

Backers of Hemerson Maria's side will point to the fact that prior to the 1-0 loss to Avai on home turf, 'JEC' had gone 11 without defeat at Arena Joinville - winning eight and drawing three. Football can often be about momentum though and it will be hard to shake off three successive losses, especially when they are taking on decent opposition. 

Sampaio Correa were only promoted to this division this season but they've made a fantastic start to life in the second tier as they in sixth place - just three points adrift of second, with the top four earning promotion.

Lisca's men come into this game in good form as they have picked up seven points from a possible nine of late and they've tasted defeat just once in 10 outings. On the road it's two wins, one draw and one loss from their four most recent fixtures and they put four past Portuguesa at the end of May.

I can't back a team at odds-on that have lost three matches in a row - especially against a side who are on the up. That's why, at around the 1.991/1 mark, I have to make Joinville my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Joinville v Sampaio Correa @ 1.991/1

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 207 pts
Returned: 213.23 pts
P/L: + 6.23 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)