Against All Odds: Bank on goals in Argentina

Can Lucas Pratto keep the goals flowing?

The new season in Argentina began last week and Paul Robinson thinks that the game between Tigre and Velez has a decent chance of having three goals or more.

Tigre v Velez
Tuesday August 12, 00:30 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Tigre finished in 12th and 13th  place in the two semesters of football last year and they proved difficult to beat in the latter of the pair. They are a solid if not spectacular team and I would expect them to finish in around the same position this term.

It's the goal-side of things we're concentrating on here though and while they began the Torneo Final with a string of low-scoring affairs - their first nine going under 2.5 goals - towards the end of it, the goals began to flow. Fabin Alegre's men had three of their last five go over 2.5 - as did three of their final five at home. It is also worth remembering that when these two last met on this ground, the final score was 2-1 to the visitors.

Velez Sarsfield narrowly missed out on topping the Torneo Inicial in 2013 but their performance level dropped in the second half of the season as they could only finish sixth in the Torneo Final. They will be hoping to challenge again this year and while they've lost their top scorer to West Ham, I wouldn't rule them out.

Jos Oscar Flores' side have been good for goals recently as with 34 scored and 26 conceded last semester, their matches averaged 3.16 goals each time - over 0.5 more than any other club in the division. A dozen of their 19 had three or more and they only failed to score on the road once - keeping just the one clean sheet themselves.

This is always a dangerous type of bet in Argentina but the value is definitely there with Velez involved. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.558/15 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Tigre v Velez @ 1.558/15

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 213 pts
Returned: 220.86 pts
P/L: + 7.86 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)