Premier League Betting: The key tactical battles this weekend

Sanchez is one of the best players in the Premier League right now

Alex Keble takes a look at the most important tactical battles from this weekend's Premier League action, including Manchester City's mouthwatering home game with Arsenal...

Leroy Fer v United's back three
Saturday, 15:00

Masked beneath QPR's pitiful away form - and consequent dormant position beneath the dreaded dotted line - is a quietly consistent, technically assured unit of talented individuals. The visit of Man United will be a stern test of their Premier League capabilities, but one that should provide an exhilarating game of football.

Louis Van Gaal's United show remarkable stylistic consistency in their home and away form; their 55.6% average possession and 82.4% pass completion on the road is bettered only by Man City and Everton. Unfortunately, with roving wing-backs camped deep in the opposition half and a high defensive line, this tactic will leave them particularly vulnerable to QPR's quick, counter-attacking football.

Utilising a good old-fashioned - and very 'English' - direct approach, QPR, largely through Joey Barton (49 passes, 2.4 key passes per game), look to distribute the ball quickly into the final third for target men Charlie Austin and Bobby Zamora; at 27.1 per match, only Stoke have won more aerial duels at home, whilst their 38 accurate long balls per home match is the second most in the division. Once in possession, these two quickly shift the ball out wide, instigating the counter-attack.

Unsurprisingly, this is most effective against teams who wish to dominate possession, as their advanced positioning allows for explosive breakaways; United's back three - against two strong centre-forwards - could make this a particularly sticky fixture for van Gaal, and leave plenty of space for Leroy Fer (2.6 key passes, 2.7 dribbles) to exploit.

Against an aerially superior front two, and with wing-backs pushed high up the pitch, long balls from QPR's deep-lying central midfielders could catch United out.

QPR will have no problem bypassing United's possessionally dominant - and congested - central midfield, and considering the in-form Austin will be facing an unpredictable defensive line-up struggling for cohesion, we are perfectly set up for a major shock.

Recommended Bet
QPR to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 10/1

Stewart Downing v Jake Livermore & David Meyler
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

As West Ham's performances wilt, and as they slide slowly down the league table, question marks over Andy Carroll's inclusion have begun to resurface; in the modern game, his lumbering presence - and the long ball football it encourages - is always likely to attract criticism. After five games without a win, it is not so much their speed that is the issue, but their predictability.

There is no doubt that Carroll has made their approach play one dimensional (the 72 long balls averaged across the last five West Ham matches is up significantly from the average of 37 for games up until his return from injury in early November), but this problem extends elsewhere. Stewart Downing's free role has been a revelation this season, but his creativity is too integral to the team; with 2.8 crosses per match and 2.8 key passes, he is the only real threat to opposition defences (their next highest is Mark Noble, with 1.3 key passes and 0.9 crosses).

In the early part of the season, forwards Diafra Sakho and Enner Valencia drifted into wide channels, pulling the opposition defence apart for Downing to drive through the middle, in a 4-4-2 diamond system utilised most notably by Brendan Rodgers last season, when the movement of SAS created freedom for Raheem Sterling.

But with a sluggish Carroll back in the team, the system has changed and Downing, so elusive before, is becoming easier to track. Against Hull, who in spite of last weekend's defeat at West Brom are showing signs of improvement defensively, Downing may find it extremely difficult to allude defensive midfield duo Jake Livermore and David Meyler, Steve Bruce's unsung heroes.

These two are forging an increasingly strong partnership in the centre of midfield, both in terms of possessional control (84% pass accuracy each) and defensive duties (average 2.6 tackles, 1.7 interceptions each per match). Against Everton, their exceptional defensive work kept Ross Barkley quiet; Bruce will be relying on similar performances this weekend, as they look to extend West Ham's record of five matches without a win.

Recommended Bet
Back The Draw @ 13/5

Fernandinho v Alexis Sanchez
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

In what is likely to be a frenetic and highly congested contest between two teams of high tempo pressing and short passing football, the individual trickery of Alexis Sanchez is likely to be key to Arsenal's performance (as usual).

Capturing Sanchez's influence in statistics is impossible; his graceful dribbling, his immaculate touch, and his remarkable eagerness to dictate the match, make him the best player in the Premier League right now.

Man City's most important job will be to stop him. Fernandinho (2.4 tackles, 1.6 interceptions per match) will need to show exceptional discipline defensively, working alongside Fernando to ensure that City's defence is not pulled out of position by the meandering runs of Sanchez, Santi Cazorla, and Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain; it is all too common to see central defenders step out to meet the Chilean, only to expose their team by doing so.

City's own propensity for possession football when away from home (58.7% possession on the road) and their reliance on Pablo Zabaleta and Gael Clichy for penetration, means that they are potentially more vulnerable to Sanchez's movement than most. Key to this game will be Fernandinho's ability to curb his urge to move forward in Yaya Toure's absence, and instead close out the pockets of space in which Sanchez operates.

An heroic performance is called for. There is no doubt that one central midfielder will step up and dominate, dictating play and lifting their side to victory. If Fernandinho does not play at the top of his game, it is unlikely that Man City will take the three points.

Recommended Bet
Back The Draw @ 29/10

Ross Barkley v Pulis defence
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

As Roberto Martinez has correctly identified, Everton's creative deficiency and abysmal points tally are, in part, the result of the deep-lying defensive strategies of the opposition; his team average 56.4% possession with 526 passes made per match - the fourth highest in the league - despite sitting, miserably, in 12th.

What Martinez failed to recognise, however, is that their wilting form is also due to Everton's predictability; the vast majority of their attacking threat comes via their full-backs (70% of their home goals come from crosses), and - considering their low tempo, short-passing build-up - it is relatively simple for opposition sides to sit back and absorb pressure, ensuring their players are never isolated one-on-one with Seamus Coleman or Leighton Baines.

However, there were tentative suggestions of improvement against Man City, as Romelu Lukaku's request for more direct football (Everton's 0.7 long key passes per game is the league's fewest) was partially answered; goalkeeper Joel Robles played 29 long balls, up from Tim Howard's 5.7 average. What's more, Muhamed Besic (2 dribbles, 3 shots) added drive and impetus in central midfield.

This slight shift towards a higher tempo football will need to be multiplied against Tony Pulis' West Brom, who have already begun to resemble his Stoke and Crystal Palace teams; against Hull City they played 87 long balls, up from a season average of 63.

Expect this figure to be even higher at Goodison Park, where Pulis will instruct his players to sit extremely deep, and await chances on the counter. His Palace side held the least possession (37.6%) with the lowest pass accuracy (70.2%) in the division last season, and boasted the toughest defence, winning more tackles and interceptions than any other team (22.3 and 18.3).

Pulis is famed for his ruthless defensive organisation; Everton will need to dramatically improve their attacking form to break through the lines. The most plausible solution to their problems is Ross Barkley, who, at 3.3 dribbles per match, is one of the most direct attackers in the division, and a player who can provide Everton with a goal without relying on Baines (8 assists) for support.

Everton are slowly beginning to find their imagination once again, and in front of their own crowd, they should be able to break through the West Brom defence - eventually.

Recommended Bet
Back Half-Time/Full-Time Draw/Everton @ 18/5