The first tennis major of the year begins on January 19th as the world's best players compete in the ATP Australian Open. This 2015 Australian Open ATP tennis betting preview focuses on historical player stats, Grand Slam trends and the importance of court speed.
Understanding the importance of court speed
Melbourne Park features a Plexicushion hard court surface; with historical hold/break data highlighting that court conditions should have an average pace.
The current ATP hard court mean service hold percentage is 79.8%. In 2014 the data showed that 79.3% of service games were held compared to 79.1% in 2013 and just 75.0% in 2012.
This quantitative data is very useful for bettors, as it disproves a number of subjective assertions that they may see in the media, or on social media, that conditions are quick. Not once in the last three years has the service hold percentage been above the ATP hard court mean.
While the surface at the Australian Open warm-up event in Brisbane - which does play faster - is the same, clearly other conditions, such as climate, compensate for this.
On that subject, last year’s weather was oppressively hot and there were a number of retirements due to conditions. Bettors should assess which players have the ability to cope well with heat and in long matches, before selecting a match winner.
Furthermore, as has been mentioned in previous Grand Slam previews, players' fitness levels are vital in determining how far they will progress in the tournament. Given the finalists will play seven games in 14 days, the ability to get through the matches - particularly early in the event - without playing long, five set matches is critical.
2014 – a year that went against tennis Grand Slam trends
Last season went against Grand Slam trends. In recent history, particularly since the advent of the ‘elite four’ - Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Andy Murray – only the best players won Grand Slams.
However, at last year’s Australian Open, Stan Wawrinka got the better of an injured Nadal in the final, while in the US Open, Croatian Marin Cilic met Kei Nishikori in a final which featured two players outside the top eight seeds.
Wawrinka’s title was the only time at the Australian Open in the last ten years that a player seeded worse than 4th won, with the top seed taking the title on six occasions in the last decade. In fact, 16 out of the top 20 finalists came from the top five seeds, with only Wawrinka, Jo Wilfried Tsonga (unseeded in 2008), Fernando Gonzalez (10th seed in 2007) and Marcos Baghdatis (unseeded in 2006) reaching the final from outside of this bracket.
From a betting perspective on this historical basis, it’s difficult to make a case for anyone outside the top eight to win the title. But lets have a look at the stats to see why.
As with most recent Grand Slams, Novak Djokovic heads the betting. The Serb is a comfortable favourite with Pinnacle Sports at 2.139* and last year’s quarter-final defeat by Wawrinka was his first at the venue since 2010. With his autumn results as strong as ever - including a World Tour Finals crown – coupled with his consistency in Melbourne – he has won 43 of 49 career matches – it's clear to see why Djokovic is favourite.
The following table illustrates just how dominant Djokovic has been over his top ten rivals on hard court:
Player
Rank
Odds
2014 Hard Court matches
2014 Hard Court win %
Hard Court service hold %
Hard Court break opponent %
Combined %
Djokovic
1
2.139
37
83.8
88.2
31.9
120.1
Federer
2
7.58
46
87.0
89.3
27.8
117.1
Nadal
3
6.71
23
78.3
86.2
28.9
115.1
Wawrinka
4
13.76
27
74.1
86.3
23.3
109.6
Nishikori
5
15.09
31
77.4
84.7
25.7
110.4
Murray
6
10.82
39
74.4
81.6
33.3
114.9
Berdych
7
67.42
35
71.4
88.3
26.2
114.5
Raonic
8
47.12
33
75.8
91.0
16.6
107.6
Cilic
9
26.07
33
72.7
86.9
21.4
108.3
Ferrer
10
107.33
31
64.5
78.9
30.9
109.8
Nadal Federer & Murray
2014 runner-up Nadal is second in the betting market but has a lot to prove. The Spaniard ended last season with injury issues and doubts were far from eliminated with a crushing defeat to Andy Murray in the Abu Dhabi exhibition, taking a mere two games in a 6-2 6-0 defeat. Performances in warm-up events, starting in Doha, will be key to assessing his chances.
In addition Nadal doesn’t boast the second best combined hold/break percentage, with that honour going to Roger Federer.
The Swiss legend had a resurgence in 2014 culminating in Davis Cup success. The victory over France in the final means that Federer has now won every major event in the sport, and this perhaps leads to some question marks over his future desire.
However, as it stands, the statistics make him Djokovic’s premier rival, ahead of the likes of Nadal, and also Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori and Tomas Berdych.
Murray’s success in the latter stages of last season will give him renewed hope, with the Scotsman taking titles in Shenzhen, Vienna and Valencia in a successful attempt to qualify for the World Tour Finals.
It was clear that in last year’s event, Murray’s recovery from back surgery was far from complete. However, with a 114.9% combined hold/break percentage, he remains very competitive at the top level and with runner-up displays in 2011 and 2013, he has a reasonable recent track record at the venue.
Can Nishikori provide an upset at Australian Open?
Japanese starlet Nishikori lost just five matches out of the 25 he competed from August onwards last season and there is no doubt that the he is now justifying the potential he displayed from an early age.
His current world ranking of five does him justice and, as with Murray, will be very competitive against the market’s more favoured players. Doubts persist however over his longevity in Slam events, with fitness being a big issue, but it’s worth noting that he had a 16-2 record in deciding third sets in 2014, which illustrates he has no problem in long three set matches, at least.
Wawrinka, Raonic & Cilic
2014 champion Stan Wawrinka leads a trio that includes Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic in having a hold/break combined percentage below 110%. What does this mean for bettors? Based on these statistics they should be considered heavy underdogs to win the tournament, and in individual matches against the elite.
These three are the only players in the top ten to break opponents less than 26% on hard court and Raonic and Cilic in particular have problems in this respect, despite both having strong serves.
However, the effect of this is that they are likely to play long, tight matches, and exert too much energy early in the tournament. Any progress past the quarter-finals should be seen as progress for these three, although failure to achieve that will do significant damage to Wawrinka’s rank.
David Ferrer has a similar hold/break combined percentage to this trio but has a declining serve, and is predicted by many to struggle this season. Certainly there will come a point where the 32-year-old’s body starts to give up on him, especially with a game based on physical attributes. A quarter-final berth would be seen as a reasonable achievement for the Spaniard.
Beware of the 'floaters'
There are also some dangerous ‘floaters’ in the draw. Unlikely to be seeded are Juan Martin Del Potro, Fernando Verdasco and Jerzy Janowicz and these players, on their day, have the ability to cause difficulties for top ten players.
Del Potro’s level will be tough to gauge with the Argentine making a long-awaited comeback from surgery. It's likely that this event will come too soon for him to make a meaningful impression.
Other players that could cause difficulties for the top 10 include Grigor Dimitrov, Ernests Gulbis (who boasts a very strong record against top ten players), John Isner and Gael Monfils. Bettors should also keep a keen eye on youngsters David Goffin, Nick Kyrgios and Dominic Thiem who all have the potential to perform well and cause a shock.
Despite historical trends this looks a much more open event than previous years. Djokovic is the outstanding player in the field and justifies his favourite status, but there should be a great deal of competition for the quarter and semi-final berths. Before placing a bet bettors are advised to consider the court, weather and player data provided in this article, and conduct further research.
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