Apia International Sydney Betting: Right conditions for Pospisil to land maiden title

Pospisil looks a good value pick in Sydney this week

Week two of the 2015 ATP World Tour is the last chance for competitive tournament play ahead of the Australian Open and Sean Calvert previews the two ATP 250s this week in Sydney and Auckland...

My opening bet of the year in Brisbane last week was a touch unlucky when Kei Nishikori fell in three tie breaks in the semi finals of that tournament to Milos Raonic.

This week sees the return of Juan Martin Del Potro to the tour after 11 months out with a wrist injury and Delpo gets a wildcard into a mediocre-looking field at the Apia International in Sydney.

Played on the same Plexicushion outdoor hard court as the Australian Open this joint ATP/WTA event has been noted as playing on the quick side in the last few years and obviously heat is a factor.

That said, each time that I've been to Sydney at this time of year it's rained and indeed the forecast is for rain on and off over the next week in the area of the NSW Tennis Centre.

Our number one seed this week in New South Wales in one Fabio Fognini - a man whose record on outdoor hard combined with his dreadful attitude makes him a fanciful bet at around 20.019/1 this week.

Indeed Fogna's top half of the draw looks wide open, with defending champ Delpo surely not in any sort of condition to be winning this week, which gives chances to the likes of Julien Benneteau, Nick Kyrgios, Jerzy Janowicz, Vasek Pospisil, and Andreas Seppi.

Nico Almagro also makes his return from long-term injury in that top half of the draw and the Spaniard hasn't played competitively since the French Open, due to foot surgery.

Almagro is unlikely to present much of a threat after so long out, but Janowicz will be in good spirits after winning the Hopman Cup with Aga Radwanska for Poland and conditions should suit JJ.

He did rely on Aga's calming court presence rather a lot in that Hopman Cup triumph though and he has a tough first rounder against Kyrgios, with the winner in with a decent chance this week.

Kyrgios is overlooked due to his injury problems, which must be a concern for his connections, as the 19-year-old seems to have had more than his fair share in the last year or so.

He withdrew from the Hopman Cup citing a back issue and I'm not of a mind to trust his body in this tournament.

Benneteau has had far too many chances to win tournaments and he was very average in a first round loss to another young Aussie starlet in Thanasi Kokkinakis in Brisbane last week.

So, I much prefer taking a chance on Pospisil at what seems a generous price of around 40.039/1 in conditions he enjoys and after a good tune-up at the Hopman Cup.

The Canadian won all three of his singles matches in Perth, including beating John Isner in straight sets and he said that he loves playing here, as the surfaces and heat suit him and his playing style.

In a top-half of the draw that does look like anyone's Pospisil seems a better back-to-lay investment than most, although he will have to beat Seppi in the opening round.

Pospisil and Seppi have had some real battles, with Seppi coming out on top in five sets in Davis Cup in 2013 and Pospisil prevailing in a final set breaker the year before at home in Canada.

The bottom half of the draw features Chennai semi finalist David Goffin, along with Jeremy Chardy, Sam Querrey, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth and Martin Klizan.

The fact that I backed Chardy last week will probably mean that he wins this week, as that tends to happen on a reasonably regular basis and after he produced two double faults from match point up against Grigor Dimitrov in Brisbane he'll probably go and win this week.

But Chardy's price of 20.019/1 looks short for a man who hasn't made a final since 2009 and at a bigger price surely the mercurial Tomic - twice a finalist here in the last two years - is a better choice?

Bernie won this title in 2013 and was beaten by Delpo in the final last year and before being outclassed by Nishikori last week in Brisbane he did show some very good form beating Kokkinakis and Querrey and comes here with every chance at 25.024/1.

Over in Auckland rumours are abound that David Ferrer won't play after winning Doha and that's seen his price drift way out to 15.014/1, which makes Yen-Hsun Lu at 34.033/1 a decent punt in New Zealand.

Lu made the semis of the Winston-Salem Open a week before the most recent major in New York, so he doesn't mind going deep ahead of a Slam, which is more than can be said about Tommy Robredo.

The Spaniard has a shocking record ahead of majors and Lu is the standout contender in the top half, with Ferrer a non-starter and Roberto Bautista-Agut also likely to be fatigued after a long run in Chennai.

The week before a major is one of the better weeks for backing long shots and I'm happy to go with three and see where it takes me this week in Sydney and Auckland.

Recommended Bets (all back-to-lay)
Back Pospisil to win Sydney at 40.039/1
Back Tomic to win Sydney at 25.024/1
Back Lu to win Auckland at 34.033/1