FA Cup betting: Grecians can avoid banana skin

Paul Tisdale is wise to the upsets, having created some with Team Bath and suffered one with Exeter

Ian Lamont takes a look at some of the League Two sides in FA Cup first round action this weekend and suggests Exeter can come through a tricky tie, while Oxford face an uncomfortable afternoon at Grimsby...

Warrington v Exeter Friday November 7, 19.55 kick-off

There are mis-matches in the FA Cup where it seems impossible for one team to win, yet it happens. 

All sanity suggests that Northern Premier League Warrington Town are unlikely to topple Exeter City, although they did bring out some glamour when England World Cup winner Roger Hunt, a former player, turned out for the first round draw. 

Warrington were high-fliers last season and have a strong playing budget for their league, so Exeter won't be fooled by a lowly league position this term, when five rounds of the FA Cup have left them behind in league games. 

The Grecians did fall to non-league Curzon Ashton in 2008, but boss Paul Tisdale also masterminded Team Bath's progress in 2002. Exeter are not a struggling side, like Plymouth were when they drew against Stourbridge then lost the replay three years ago, or at Dorchester two seasons ago.

It's a tenuous link, but Warrington boss Shaun Reid, who played for Rochdale at Old Trafford and prefers to be the underdog, is brother of former England man Peter, who managed Plymouth fairly recently. Maybe one brother can draw on the other's vast experience in the game.

Warrington will be buzzing for this BBC televised tie and Reid has noted his team are a yard faster in training. Their tales are up and in a close-packed intense atmosphere in front of 2,500 this could be an uncomfortable, intimidating evening for the visitors.

At least at the start. Perhaps the 1.42/5 on the visitors is worth laying with a view to cashing out if it stays 0-0 for a long period - until half-time for example. Draw/Exeter for the half-time/full-time could be a good ploy at 4.57/2.

But then I expect Exeter's fitness to show, even if senior heads have to steer England under-20s youngsters such as Christy Pym and Matt Grimes through. Matt Oakley's experience will be crucial, as will wily Tisdale's messages to his team, for example to contain marauding right-back Lewis Field who netted the Warrington winner in the last round.

Recommended Bets
Lay Exeter at 1.42/5 to cash out at 2.01/1
Back Draw/Exeter in the half-time/full-time market @ 4.57/2

Saturday November 8, 15:00 kick-offs
Grimsby 2.35/4 v Oxford 3.02/1; the draw 3.55/2

It is surprising to learn that Danny Hylton would rather miss an FA Cup game than a league one, suspended as he is for this cup tie. 

Perhaps he has forgotten he scored a hat-trick for Aldershot Town against Rotherham two seasons ago (then got sent off). But that was in the middle of a semi-barren run. Now he must wondering how he is League Two's top scorer with 10 yet his team are doing pretty badly - especially away from home.

Perhaps his absence, after gaining five yellow cards, has led to the impression that Michael Appleton could field a weakened team at Grimsby.

Andy Whing is a big unit in front of the defence, not very mobile. A nice away tactic? It's not working so far with one win and two draws. Will Tyrone Barnett be allowed to play while on loan? Probably. Will it make any difference? He is not in great form with two goals from nine games since his temporary switch from Peterborough.

In contrast to Appleton's critics and indifferent form, The Mariners have four straight wins and are unbeaten in six, with the joint best home defensive record in the Conference, conceding just four.

Lenell John-Lewis is loving the game at present, scoring in each of those last four - six in the last six in total.

Grimsby legend John McDermott reckons the 25-year-old is one of the best target men at holding the front line at Conference level. The former Bury forward will be keen to prove that he could play at a higher level and will be a handful on what could be an uncomfortable afternoon for the visitors. A big price on the away side means we can forego a lay on the U's and plumb for the home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Grimsby @ 2.35/4

Peterborough 1.51/2 v Carlisle 6.05/1; the draw 5.04/1

Anyone looking for a cup upset might consider Carlisle on the basis there is no pressure on a team in recovery to win - it is effectively a free game: free of expectation and pressure.

Young players will enjoy the chance to impress one of the clubs that takes on large numbers of players with talent and potential.

Under Keith Curle, the northern side have been revived and a little stutter of late won't distract them from giving victory a go.

It seems the right time to play Posh, who climbed to as high as second in League One but who have lost their last three games, the last at home to struggling Scunthorpe.

David Amoo, Mark Beck and Steven Rigg will want to impress, while Derek Asamoah now has an extended contract to live up to. 

The priority for Carlisle, third bottom of League Two, remains that recovery. But the building blocks are now in place with a few wins under their belt for their new boss and they could be in mid-table by the time round two comes along.

Every incentive, then, to go out and try to win, compounding Posh's misery of six-goal forward Marcus Maddison and defender Jack Baldwin being out injured for at least the medium term.

Recommended Bet
Lay Peterborough @ 1.51/2

York 2.47/5 v AFC Wimbledon 3.185/40; the draw 3.55/2

A first victory for Russ Wilcox with York City remained very much in the mould of the former manager - 1-0. A tight affair. Again. Scoring twice in a match remains a rarity. Indeed, the Minstermen have scored one or nought in their past seven games.

The FA Cup has a habit of upsetting statistics and form, but these habits do seem hard to fight against. York might have a bit of confidence, but they will still be a little nervous at home, when their best results have been six draws.

What is in York's favour is AFC Wimbledon's recent record away - except in that exceptional night (for them) in Milton Keynes in the JP Trophy.

One point from the last four away games in League Two does not bode well for the Dons, who need Adebayor Akinfenwa and Matt Tubbs to translate home goals to the road.

Sheffield United recalling Diego De Girolamo deflates York City and enhances the chances of a draw.

Recommended Bet
Back York and AFC Wimbledon to draw @ 3.55/2

P/L 2014-15

+4.89pt (League Two)