England v Slovenia: Defences to dominate in Group E clash

Will Joe Hart keep his fifth consecutive clean sheet?

Everything points towards the Three Lions pulling off a slim win to nil against parsimonious opponents this Saturday evening, says Joe Dyer 

England v Slovenia
Saturday November 15, 17:00
Live on ITV 

England
The Three Lions are enjoying another easy qualification campaign. Whether it'll be followed by another big tournament flop we can't possibly say but three Group E games have brought nothing but joy with three victories, two on the road, and no goals conceded. Roy Hodgson's team haven't been impressive but they have been quietly efficient, doing just enough to get past each opponent - even the world's worst team, San Marino, were only hit for five. The end result is that Roy's boys lead Group E by three points and they are already short odds-on to both win the group and qualify for Euro 2016. 

Hodgson must again do without Liverpool striker Daniel Sturridge while Manchester United midfielder Michael Carrick pulled out in midweek. 

Slovenia
Second in the group, England face a dangerous opponent on Saturday evening. Slovenia kicked off their campaign with an unexpected defeat in Estonia (who England beat 1-0 last time out) but responded in fine fashion beating Switzerland 1-0 to claim their first points in the group and then ended Lithuania's unbeaten record with a 2-0 win to move into second place. Slovenia have conceded just one goal in three qualifying games while scoring three of their own - expect a similarly defensive approach on Saturday evening. 

Match Odds
England bring a 100% winning record to the game and boast home advantage too, so it's no surprise to see them well-fancied for the win but do you find odds of 1.341/3 attractive? It's not one for me, and I'm confident the Three Lions will trade at a significantly higher price in-play. Hodgson's men are not heavy scorers and had to wait until the second half to break the deadlock against Estonia and Switzerland. Against a defensively-minded opponent that will probably consider a draw a good result it could take England a long time to get on the scoresheet. 

If desperate to back a home win there are plenty of other options at bigger prices. Two of the home side's games have been level at the break before England landed the win. The Halftime-Fulltime market has Draw/England available to back at 4.3100/30. A 1-0 or 2-0 home win will reward at 6.25/1, while dutching those two scores offers potential winnings at a shade over 3.02/1. An England Win to Nil will likely trade around the even money mark. 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The market has latched on to both teams' defence-first mentality making Unders the favourite at around 1.910/11. It's possible that Hodgson's outfit will suddenly discover their attacking teeth but neither teams' recent results point to this one - just one of Slovenia's last 12 games has broken the Over 2.5 line. And when Slovenia lose they tend not to score - failing to score in all six of those defeats in the last 12. Backing a low-scoring match definitely looks the way to go here and it's tempting to be a bit braver by chancing Under 1.5 at around 3.613/5. If the game is as tight as I expect you would be able to trade the bet or just Cash Out. 

Recommended Bets
Back Halftime Draw @ 2.6213/8
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.8810/11 

Joe Dyer's Euro 2016 P&L

Staked 3pts
Returned 4.8pts
P/L +1.8pts