Belgium v Wales: Bale & co. will give Belgians plenty food for thought

Wales can afford to go to Belgium and give it a good go but also, and more importantly, have the firepower to do so.

Wales' unbeaten start to the campaign will be given its sternest examination yet, but the challenge in Belgium is not one that Chris Coleman's men will shy away from...

Belgium v Wales
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports 5

Belgium
Romelu Lukaku and Divock Origi were among the goalscorers in Belgium's 3-1 friendly win against Iceland on Wednesday night, making it just one defeat and 11 wins in the last 13 international fixtures for les Diables Rouges.

Having only played two games in Euro 2016 qualifying Marc Wilmots' team currently sit three points off the pace in Group B with a win and a draw on the board. The victory came in emphatic fashion with a 6-0 triumph over Andorra, which was then followed by an 1-1 draw away to Bosnia & Herzegovina three days later.

Dries Mertens and Kevin De Bruyne each have a couple of goals to their name, while the Belgians' offensive threat will be bolstered this weekend by the return of Christian Benteke who has been called up to the squad for the first time since a ruptured Achilles injury forced him to miss the World Cup.

The news isn't so good for Belgium at the opposite end of the pitch, however, as Vincent Kompany has been ruled out of the game with the calf injury that kept him out of Manchester City's 2-2 draw with QPR.

Wales
After just six minutes of their opening game of the campaign Wales were 1-0 behind against minnows Andorra and things couldn't have looked much worse. But up stepped Gareth Bale with a world class performance and two goals that led to a 2-1 victory, and the Welsh haven't looked back since.

The subsequent goalless draw with Bosnia & Herzegovina was littered with positives and ended with Chris Coleman's men very much on the front foot. And they then took that momentum into the game against Cyprus, winning 2-1 despite playing the best part of 45 minutes with just 10 men.

Of course a trip to Belgium will present the sternest test yet for Wales, but with points on the board it's a game that they can very much approach with a positive mindset.

On the back of his first Real Madrid goal since September, Bale will obviously be an important player for the visitors, but the return of Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen will also be a big factor and can release some of the burden from the 80million man's shoulders.

Match Odds
While I accept that there is an obvious gulf in quality between the two teams, I don't feel that there should be quite as much disparity in the Match Odds betting where Belgium are priced at 1.330/100 and Wales are 14.013/1.

Although, as mentioned above, Belgium have lost just one of their last 13 matches, Wales are also amid a run of only one defeat in eight international fixtures. While we only need to look back to the 1-1 draw in World Cup 2014 qualification to see that Wales - who at the time weren't nearly as confident a team as they are now - are capable of getting a result in Brussels.

Certainly as an In-Play trading option and perhaps also an outright punt, Belgium have to be opposed at odds of 1.330/100.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Wales have found the back of the net in six of their last eight games at any venue and six of their last seven away from home, while the only game in which Belgium have failed to score in their last 14 was the World Cup quarter-final against Argentina.

Wilmots' men have also managed to score 12 goals in four games since the World Cup, while Wales have four in three in Euro 2016 qualification. All things considered it's a recipe for goals and Over 2.5 at odds of 1.865/6 looks to be a good bet.

Both Teams To Score
Based on the above statistics and the feeling that their position in Group B allows Wales to come to Brussels and have a real go at Belgium, the Yes selection in this market, at odds of 2.466/4, looks to be an outstanding price, and one that we should look to take full advantage of.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Yes - Both Teams To Score @ 2.68/5
1pt Lay Belgium - Match Odds @ 1.330/100

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 19.5 pts
Returned: 22.12 pts
P/L: +2.62 pts