Joinville are on the verge of promotion
Following his winner in Colombia last night, Paul Robinson is looking to follow it up in Brazil's Serie B.
Sampaio Correa v Joinville
Tuesday November 4, 23:50 GMT
Fresh from promotion from the Brazilian third tier, Sampaio Correa have enjoyed an impressive campaign in Serie B. They are nicely positioned in 10th place in the table, a comfortable nine points clear of the relegation zone with only five games to go. They actually had an outside chance of promotion but back to back defeats has left them five points adrift of the top four.
It's the goal statistics that we're concentrating on tonight though and with 47 scored and 38 conceded so far this term, Lisca's side are seeing their matches average 2.58 goals each time. That's the sixth highest total in the entire division, with 16 of their 33 rewarding under 2.5 layers - including four of their last half dozen at home.
Joinville are racing towards the Campeonato and fixtures at the likes of Cruzeiro, Sao Paulo and Atletico Mineiro next year. Five straight victories has them in second place, just one point behind leaders, Ponte Preta, and seven clear of third. A win here would all but seal their promotion and it's hard to see them failing to do so.
As far as the goals go, Hemerson Maria's men may have only netted 48 this season, but their fixtures are still averaging a healthy 2.3 goals per 90 minutes. Like their opponents, 16 of their 33 have ended with three or more being scored and they netted that many themselves in their last away game.
Both teams look certain to score in this one, and I can easily see Joinville grabbing more than that. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.8910/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Sampaio Correa v Joinville @ 1.8910/11
2014 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 296 pts
Returned: 309.60 pts
P/L: + 13.60 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)
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