Against All Odds: Brazilian Cup Final to be explosive

Can Atletico Mineiro lift more silverware?

Another winner for Paul Robinson yesterday means it's eight from the last nine selections for the expert odds-on layer and tonight he has picked the Copa do Brasil to focus on.

Atletico MG v Cruzeiro
Thursday November 13, 00:00 GMT

This is the first match of a two legged final and for a fair while, Atletico Mineiro were a huge price to make it this far. After losing the first leg of their semi at Flamengo by two goals to nil, they went 3-0 down on aggregate before staging a monumental comeback to put four goals past the current holders in the space of 43 minutes.

That just goes to prove their resolve - especially on home turf as 'Galo' rarely lose in front of their own fans. Clean sheets aren't often the case though as Levir Culpi's side have conceded in four of their last seven at home. They still won all seven, and that was mainly down to the 18 goals they racked up during that period.

Opponents, Cruzeiro, are trying to win their domestic double as they are long odds-on to win the Campeonato and have to be considered the favourites to win this tournament. After an explosive start to the campaign, Marcelo Oliveira's men are falling over the line a touch, but they still come into this fixture on a seven game unbeaten streak.

Goals usually follow 'A Raposa' around and their last three outings have all rewarded under 2.5 layers. Their league matches have averaged 2.82 goals each time - 19 of 33 finishing with three or more - and their three away fixtures in the Copa do Brasil this season have all gone over 2.5.

This may be the first leg but I still quite fancy goals. Atletico Minieiro will know that they have to win to stand any chance of lifting the trophy but I can't see them keeping a clean sheet. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.824/5 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Atletico MG v Cruzeiro @ 1.824/5

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 304 pts
Returned: 325.65 pts
P/L: + 21.65 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)