The Big Match Tactical View: Crystal Palace v Tottenham

Can Harry Kane make it eight goals in eight games?

Alan Pardew's home debut as Crystal Palace manager is a difficult match against in-form Tottenham Hotspur - can Pardew end their unbeaten run? Michael Cox considers the tactical battle, while Alan Thompson brings the betting expertise...

Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Crystal Palace 3.65n/a, Tottenham 2.226/5, The Draw 3.55/2.

Alan Pardew will receive a warm reception from the home support at Selhurst Park, but this is an extremely difficult first Premier League fixture for a manager who needs results quickly.

Palace's form is dreadful - they've failed to score in five of their last seven Premier League games, haven't won in the last eight, and while the FA Cup thrashing of Dover Athletic was a pleasant start, it remains to be seen whether that will translate into an upturn in their league form.

Tottenham, meanwhile, haven't lost in seven and defeated Chelsea 5-3 in their last league game, although the 1-1 draw at Burnley in the FA Cup was a setback. Nevertheless, they'll make the trip across London expecting a victory, and are likely to dominate the game.

Predicting Pardew's starting XI is a difficult task, despite the victory at Dover. Pardew likes to vary his tactics according to the nature of the opposition, and therefore there's every chance he'll select a surprise system in an attempt to cause Spurs problems, perhaps packing the midfield. 

Palace are actually weakened in that zone without Mile Jedinak, who is at the Asian Cup in his homeland, something they'll need to get used to over the next few weeks. Therefore, Pardew could compensate for quality with quantity, and use Joe Ledley, Joel Ward and James McArthur in the centre of midfield. 

The alternative would be to support Fraizer Campbell with a second striker - probably Dwight Gayle, who scored as a substitute against Dover - but Pardew might consider this a Plan B, and concentrate on keeping it tight.

The midfield battle will be particularly interesting considering Spurs will be without Nabil Bentaleb, outstanding in recent weeks, as the Algerian is away at the Africa Cup of Nations. With Ryan Mason also an injury doubt, the midfield zone is highly unpredictable and could feature any two of Mason, Moussa Dembele and Benjamin Stambouli. The combination of Bentaleb and Mason had worked well in recent weeks, particularly in that resounding victory over Chelsea.

Mauricio Pochettino is likely to continue with Christian Eriksen at the head of the midfield trio - and, with Jedinak out, he might find plenty of space between the lines. Support should come from Andros Townsend and Nacer Chadli, who seem to provide good balance.

The key player, though, is clearly Harry Kane. You can't argue with seven goals in his last seven appearances, especially when two came against Chelsea, who have seemingly the best defence in the Premier League. Palace are much more open, and given any space - either in front of, or behind the defence - he could run riot.

A deep defence could cause Spurs problems, though. In those situations, the passing tempo must be extremely high, and without Bentaleb this could suffer, while Townsend needs space to run into and Chadli tends to make off-the-ball runs, rather than providing the creativity himself.

It would mean a huge emphasis upon Eriksen to provide the moments of magic, and the Dane has often preferred to shoot from range this season, rather than look for teammates. It's difficult to see Spurs coming close to five goals again, if Palace set up cautiously.

But it's also difficult to see many goals coming from Palace either, especially without tricky winger Yannick Bolasie, away at the Africa Cup of Nations. We simply don't yet know what Pardew wants from this side - possession football, counter-attack, long balls - and the attacking individuals aren't good enough to produce results when left to their own devices.

I think this will be a slow burner. I'm reluctant to back under 2.5 goals because I think the game could open out massively after the first goal, but on the basis that the opener might take a while to come, I'll back a half-time 0-0 at 3.39/4.

Recommended Bet
Back 0-0 in Half-Time Score at 3.211/5

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

There is always been a great atmosphere at Selhurst Park, but I expect they will be even louder on Saturday evening for Alan Pardew’s first league game in charge. However, I believe he will have his work cut out against an in-form Tottenham side without two key first team regulars in Mile Jedinak (Australia) and Yannick Bolasie (Congo) who are away on international duty while Marouane Chamakh is also a major injury doubt.

Pardew’s Newcastle were drawing at half time in eight of their ten games at St James’ Park. However, the Eagles so far this season have only kept two clean sheets and been behind five times before half time in their nine home games this season – it will be interesting to see if the new Palace boss can do what he did at Newcastle and stop them leaking these first half goals.

Spurs are unbeaten in their last six Premier League starts and have only lost twice on the road this season, albeit heavily but the defeats were at Chelsea (0-3) and Manchester City (1-4). The defeat at Stamford Bridge was the only away game that Tottenham have failed to score in and when playing away against teams in the bottom half of the league they have scored exactly two goals in each game. Tottenham boast the second best away record in the league collecting an average of 1.89 points per game away from White Hart Lane.

I was very tempted to go for Tottenham/Tottenham at 4.0 in the Half Time/Full Time market and while I wouldn't put anyone off that bet I decided to back Tottenham to win 1-2 @ 10.5 and have a saver for that stake on 1-1 @ 7.4.

Harry Kane opened the scoring inside the first five minutes of Tottenham’s last two away games, he also got the opening goal at White Hart Lane against Burnley and at anything above 6.0, I think he is worth a flutter to open the scoring here.