Oregon favourites to beat Ohio State but stats suggest close game

The 2015 NCAA Football National Championship takes place on January 12th as Ohio State Buckeyes take-on Oregon Ducks at the AT&T Stadium. This NCAA Football National Championship betting preview looks at the statistics between the two colleges to help bettors predict a winner.

NCAA Football National Championship betting – Ohio State vs. Oregon

The NFL post season reaches the Divisional round over the coming weekend, but the highlight for many will be the conclusion of the college football season.

Six point underdogs, Ohio State (1.900*), coached by Urban Meyer take on the Pinnacle Sports' favourites, Oregon (+6 1.990*), who boast hugely experienced, 2014 Heisman Trophy winner, Marcus Mariota under centre. The Moneyline odds give Oregon an implied probability of 67.25% compared to just 35.71% for Ohio.

A feast of scoring is anticipated, with both teams amassing at least 40 points in all but six of the 28 combined matches they have negotiated on their way to the final match.

Using Pythagorean to predict the NCAAF National Championship winner

Both sides boast a 13-1 record, so in an attempt to split the two sides we can use football’s version of Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation. Runs scored and allowed in baseball is often a better indication of how a side actually performed and the same is true in football for points.

The general equation for Pythagorean win% is:

(Points Scored^X/(Points Scored^X + Points Allowed^X))

X can take a variety of values, but 2.37 is the most commonly used for football.

Oregon scored 661 points and allowed 312 in their 14 games, while Ohio State allowed two fewer points and scored 630 in the same number of games. When these numbers are plugged into the Pythagorean equation, Oregon has a 0.855 win expectation compared to 0.842 for their rivals. Or more usefully, precisely 12 Pythagorean wins for Oregon and 11.8 for Ohio State.

So both outfits have actual win/loss records (13-1) that are better than those suggested from their respective points tally. This may suggest they will see a decline in wins in future campaigns, but neither team emerges with a clear advantage in this alternative assessment.

Does strength of schedule help pick a NCAAF winner?

One perennial problem in both the NFL and especially college football is the often unbalanced strength of schedule and small sample size. The two rivals have faced only one common opponent during their run to the Championship game. Ohio State defeated Michigan State 49-37 in early November, following on from the Spartans 46-27 defeat by Oregon two months previously.

So again there is little to split the sides.

We can partly adjust for scheduling issues by looking at the records of the 14 teams which the finalists have played. Each of their opponents will have played between 12 and 14 various opponents.

For example, Oregon’s 14 opponents played a total of 180 games, conceding 5,285 points at an average of 29.4 points per game and this wider batch of 180 matches may reduce the effect of an unduly difficult or easy schedule.

Oregon’s opponents therefore allowed an average of 29.4 points per game against a batch of hopefully typical college opponents, but when they faced Oregon’s offence they allowed a combined 661 points at an average of 47.2 points per game.

In short, bettors should note that Oregon’s offense scored nearly 18 more points on average than their opponents typically allowed.

We may similarly look at how many points Oregon’s 2014 opponents scored on average in their 180 matches and compare this figure to the average number of points the Duck’s defense allowed.

Unsurprisingly, Oregon’s defense also appears to be above average. They allowed an average of 22.3 points against 14 offenses, which typically scored an average of 31.1 points in 180 matches, an improvement of almost 9 points.

Therefore, Oregon, on both sides of the football, performed a combined 26.6 points better than the average performance produced by a wide variety of college teams against their 14 rivals in 2014. 

If we repeat the calculations for Ohio State and their opponents from this season we see very similar results. The Buckeyes scored an average of 19.6 points more than their opponents normally allow and allowed 6.5 fewer points than their 2014 opponents usually score. Meyer’s team are a combined 26.1 points better than the average.

And as before, neither Oregon nor Ohio State can claim a decisive edge over their opponent by this analysis.

Ohio State vs. Oregon - Using yards per pass/yards per rush data

Even if we look at efficiency data, such as yards per pass or yards per rush, no clear winner emerges.

So far this season, Ohio State has passed for 8.98 yards per pass against defences that on average have allowed only 6.8 yards per attempt. Oregon’s passing offense betters this over performance, but their advantage likely disappears on game day because Ohio State’s pass defense is superior to that of the Ducks.

Once again, we have two very closely matched teams.

Will injuries to both teams prove decisive?

A single game of football is often about matchups, although partly random events, such as turnovers and 3rd down efficiency are also highly influential. And while both Oregon and Ohio State appear above average, both on offense and defense, it's the offensive side of each team that is their biggest asset.

Bettors focussing on the NCAA Football National Championship totals betting market should know that each team will be able to move the ball relatively easily on the ground, where two very good running games will match up against two merely good run defences. Add into this their excellent throwing games, and this makes the current 75 total points quote, well within reach for bettors.

Statistically there appears to be little between the teams, so injuries may tip the balance. Oregon lost corner, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and may have to play without wide receiver and kickoff returner, Devon Allen.

But the Buckeyes will need to rely on their preseason, third string quarterback, Cardale Jones, whose sole career starts have yielded two wins, both as underdogs. The first a 59-0 shutout of Wisconsin, followed by a 42-35 beating of number one ranked Alabama.

Bettors punting on the spread could be enticed by the +6 underdogs - the Buckeyes - especially if they follow the stats prediction of a tight game, and Cardale Jones can continue his excellent start. However, if Jones doesn’t perform under the pressure of an NCAA Football National Championship game, Oregon – who has the best national turnover margin – will be waiting for their chance.

Which side are you on?

Pinnacle Sports regularly share Bet % data on big games through their official Twitter account. This data typically highlights who the public favour on a particular market – something very helpful for bettors. (Data in image below updated on January 11th, 8.00pm UTC)

As you can see despite the -6 deficit and the data in the article above suggesting a tight game, the public currently believe Oregon will cover the spread. Whether or not you consider this data in your betting, we will update it everyday until the final. 

Click here to see the latest NCAAF National Championship odds.