пятница, 24 августа 2012 г.

La Liga Preview: Falcao flies highest against Athletic

Radamel Falcao has scored four times in his last two appearances against Athletic Bilbao

Barcelona and Real Madrid went full pelt in the Super Cup on Thursday, but Tobias Gourlay believes both are strong enough to recover in time for Sunday night

Osasuna v Barcelona
Sunday 18:00 (Sky Sports 1)
Osasuna 17.5n/a Barcelona 1.241/4 draw 7.06/1

Tito Vilanova has started well. Barcelona won their opening league game 5-1 and on Thursday night beat Real Madrid 3-2 in the first leg of the Super Cup.

But now the blaugrana must leave the Camp Nou and head north. Osasuna have lost only two of their last seven La Liga home games with Barca, Opta has noticed. In February, El Sadar was the scene of Barca's only away defeat this year. It was a serious setback in their pursuit of the title, but Osasuna's goalscorers in their 3-2 win have moved on and the new campaign might not be a vintage one for Pamplona's finest.

Raul Garcia, last season's 11-goal top-scorer, did well enough for Atletico Madrid to want to keep him for themselves this season. Dejan Lekic, who scored twice against Barca, joined Genclerbirligi over the summer. Another forward, Ibrahima Balde, has gone to earn his fortune in Russia.

In contrast, David Villa's return gives Vilanova more attacking options than Guardiola had last season, when this was exactly the sort of match - away from home, middling opposition - in which Barca struggled to perform.

Jose Luis Mendilibar might pack Osasuna's midfield, but Pedro and Tello have the width and pace to circumvent such tactics and this weekend's result should be more like the 5-1 registered by Real Madrid here in March than the aforementioned 2-3. Vilanova might rotate his squad - there's the second leg of the Super Cup to come next week - but, if Pedro starts, note that he's scored in both games so far and could be 2.56/4 to make it three in a row on Sunday.

Getafe v Real Madrid
Sunday 20:00 (Sky Sports 1)
Getafe 10.5n/a Real 1.402/5 draw 5.39/2

Two games, no wins. Not quite a crisis, but Jose Mourinho must rally the champions soon. Perhaps it's because there were no new signings on the pitch, but the atmosphere at the Bernabeu for last weekend's 1-1 draw with Valencia was tepid.

It's a derby they face on Sunday night, but it's one they usually do alright in: Opta reports that Real have won seven in a row against Getafe. They've also won 15 in a row against other teams from the Spanish capital.

Getafe's sheikh turned out to be fake and Luis Garcia has had to get creative in the summer transfer window. Xavi Torres, who played under him at Levante, should improve central midfield. Goalkeeper Miguel Angel Moya and ex-Real winger Pedro Leon - who is contractually obliged not to play this weekend - have lots of upside too, but who's going to score the goals?

They finished eleventh last season, but scored fewer goals than anyone else outside the bottom five. Dani Guiza is not what he was and Adrian Colunga is not what it was hoped he might be, so the pressure is on Venezuelan hitman Miku and Diego Castro, who scored seven times from the wing last term.

Real Madrid had more shots than anyone else last weekend and Iker Casillas did not have to make a single save. Expect something similar on Sunday night, but with a different result. Real have won 15/17 on the road and 1.42/5 looks like an overreaction to just a couple of disappointing results against better teams than Getafe.

Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao
Monday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Atletico 1.645/8 Athletic 6.05/1 draw 4.03/1

Atletico Madrid kept hold of their best player over the summer, while Athletic Bilbao are preparing to lose both of theirs. This could be the difference between the two teams when they meet in the Spanish capital on Monday night.

Radamel Falcao thinks he's in with a shout of the Pichichi this season. If he's serious, he really can't afford to leave it much longer than the second round of the campaign to open his account for Atletico. Happily, the Colombian found the back of the net in 15/24 home games in La Liga and the Europa League last term. He scored twice in this fixture last season and netted another brace against the Basques in the Europa League final.

Without wantaways Fernando Llorente and Javi Martinez, Athletic conceded five at Real Betis last weekend and Falcao rates a bet at even money to score against them anytime.

Best Bet
Back Radamel Falcao To Score @ 2.01/1 v Athletic Bilbao

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