Sergio Garcia – is he too short with a round to go?Steve's pre-event pick, Paul Lawrie, is in prime position with a round to go in Scotland and win or lose he thinks he's a good price this morning but he hasn't the same opinion about Sergio Garcia. Is he too short with a two shot lead and a round to go at The Barclays? Steve thinks he is.
10:25 - August 26, 2012
I can't complain about yesterday at all, things went well at both events.
At the Johnnie Walker Championship, my main pre-event pick, Paul Lawrie, played really well again and he's now moved into the lead with a round to go. I layed some of my wager off at an average of 1.804/5 during yesterday's third round but I backed that lay back again at 2.1011/10 at the close of play. I do intend to lay him back again at odds on but he's too big at present. All the High Street firms have him odds on and I can't see why he's odds against on Betfair.
I can see Lawrie shortening up quite a bit before he tees off at 12.35 and if you're looking for a minimum risk short-term trade, backing him now at around 2.1011/10 and laying him back before he even hits a ball, could pay dividends.
Lawrie's big danger is his playing partner, talented young Frenchman Romain Wattel, who trails him by one, but he could find it all a bit much today and I think Lawrie will have his measure as he has a couple of handicaps to overcome. He's only ever been anywhere near this close to the lead with a round to go once before on the European Tour, at last year's Open de Espana, where he entered the final round in second place, trailing by two. On that occasion he shot 72 and dropped down to fourth, so he'll have to perform better in-contention today and he'll also have to back up yesterday's low round of 63, something that all pros struggle to do, regardless of the circumstances.
Fellow Scot, Stephen Gallagher, sits in third, three behind Lawrie, but he's a notoriously poor in-contention performer and if there are going to be dangers to my man they could well come from off the pace, as Martin Erlandsson did here three years ago. He shot 62 to come from six off the lead and tied 20th place to very nearly get into a playoff with eventual winner Peter Hedblom.
My plan today is to watch the early moves, to try and get the potential movers onside, and to look to get Lawrie layed back at odds on.
Over at The Barclays, halfway punt, Sergio Garcia, now leads by two with a round to go but I've already layed him back to make sure I don't lose on the event. I did so at 2.206/5 last night, just before he played the final hole. His playing partner, Nick Watney, bogeyed the last and Sergio's now shortened up to around 2.021/1 but he makes little appeal at that price and I'm happy to be out. He's still a winner in the book and I'll be cheering him on but whereas Lawrie looks too big this morning, Sergio looks too short.
I'm not sure what to do here yet and I may do nothing further but I'm regretting not following Paul Krishnamurty again this week. With John Senden already meeting the first lay-back target, profits have already been assured for his Find Me A 100 Winner column, and now he has a great chance of going further into the black with his other selection, Brandt Snedeker. Now just four behind Sergio, Brandt looks to have every chance of trading below 15.014/1 this evening and who knows, he could even win it should the enigmatic Spaniard not deliver.
11:35 - August 25, 2012
I got back from my holiday yesterday morning, just in time to see my main Johnnie Walker Championship pick, Paul Lawrie, make back-to-back bogeys after he'd hit the front. Welcome home!
He settled down after that mishap though, paring his way through the next six holes before eagling the 9th and he goes into the weekend on -7, in a tie for third place alongside Brett Rumford and just one off the lead, held jointly by Mark Foster and Richard Finch.
My man heads the market now and his biggest danger looks to be Nicolas Colsaerts, who's two shots behind him on -5. There's plenty of chit-chat about who's going to make the Ryder Cup team but the big-hitting Belgian could determine his own destiny if he collects the title here, or indeed just finishes second, so he has plenty to play for.
There have been rumours that Padraig Harrington and European captain Jos Mara Olazabal don't see eye-to-eye after a spat at the Seve Trophy several years ago but they've been quashed by the Spaniard, who said, "If people believe that is interfering with my judgment then first of all they are completely wrong. If that was the case I would be failing as a captain."
I'm not going to get too wrapped up in who makes the team and who doesn't but I wouldn't be picking Pod. I don't think he should have gotten in at the expense of Paul Casey last time. When he did get the nod from Monty he was the weakest on the team and had it not been for Ross Fisher, who carried him twice, he'd have drawn a blank.
Anyway, back to the Johnnie Walker Championship and I've done nothing further as yet. If forced to make an in-play bet now it would probably be on Thorbjorn Olesen, who on -4 at halfway, may have had his sticky patch yesterday afternoon, when he played the back nine in two-over-par.
It just goes to show how fast the game moves on, I've been on holiday for just a fortnight but a lot has happened. Not only did Rory McIlroy win the USPGA Championship in extremely impressive fashion, cementing his place atop of the world rankings, but Sergio Garcia won again, and won again in style! And I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he didn't follow up at The Barclays this week, an event I'm finding a little confusing...
I thought driving distance would be key this week and that big-hitting types could dominate, but the presence of accurate hitters like Bob Estes and John Senden (yet another superb Find Me A 100 Winner pick by Paul Krishnamurty) on the leaderboard flies in the face of that theory.
All three of my pre-event picks look out of the game so it's time to start afresh in-running and I can't really see past Sergio. He cost me a few quid last week because I layed both he and Jason Dufner with a round to go at the Wyndham Championship. He's extremely fragile mentally and can soon capitulate when in-contention but it was impossible to crab his performance last week and he could well kick on again this. He won back-to-back events in Spain last year and with the course getting tougher over the weekend, from a prime position at halfway, he could well do so again here.
Currently tied with Nick Watney at the top of the leaderboard on -8 with veterans, Vijay Singh and Bob Estes a shot back, followed by John Senden and Pat Perez on -6, I think you need to go to the group on -5, which includes, Tiger Woods and Rickie Fowler, before you find a big threat to the clearly on-song Spaniard. I have to confess, after two weeks away, I don't feel as though I'm fully tuned into the events this week just yet so I'm taking things steady before I get my eye back in but I thought at 5.39/2, Sergio was worth a small play.
Johnnie Walker Championship Pre-event Selections:
Paul Lawrie @ 34.033/1
James Morrison @ 160.0159/1
The Barclays Pre-event Selections:
Bubba Watson @ 34.033/1
Phil Mickelson @ 44.043/1
Graham DeLaet @ an average of 550.0549/1
In-Play Bets
Sergio Garcia backed @ 5.39/2 & layed @ 2.206/5
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