среда, 29 августа 2012 г.

In-Running Week: Rover going for Cup succes and some In-Play profit

Richard Fahey, trainer of Doncaster Rover and Area Fifty One
Two Richard Fahey runners are added to Neil Munro's In-Running database this week with particular interest being on Doncaster Rovers if he takes his chance in the Ayr Gold Cup...
Martha Graham once said that 'the only sin is mediocrity'. Who was Martha Graham I hear you ask (or maybe not)? Martha was an American dancer and choreographer who was described by many as the Picasso of dance. Now I am no dancer - I would have been a challenge for Martha - but I do believe in what she said, apart from in one instance; in-running trading.
Mediocre racing is no sin as horses at this level are not analysed as much as those running at the grade one tracks and Saturday horses. This gives you more chance of finding angles and value to trade. But having said that even I like to try and find some better horses to trade on so here are a few.

Chachamaidee
I am not sure Martha would have ever danced the Cuban Chachacha but she would have recognised that Chachamaidee is far from mediocre. The five year old won the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and then returned to the same track to try and pick up the Celebration Mile recently. She travelled in her regular style at the back of the pack, moving smoothly into the race two furlongs but just never got to the front running Premio Loco. I believe her premium trip is seven furlongs so this mile may just stretch her at times but she certainly does have class. Because of her field position in a race she does tend to trade bigger in the run but then when delivered late tends to hit low points as well.
Back Chachamaidee for half your stake pre-race at BSP and then put up a further offer at double the BSP in the run. Over one mile lay out your combined stake at the matched price. The put up a further offer at odds-on to have the field winning. Over seven furlongs only put up the odds-on lay for your combined stake.

Doncaster Rover
I just have a sneaky feeling for Doncaster Rover in the Ayr Gold Cup. Richard Fahey knows what it takes to win the race having done so with the class sprinter Fonthill Road and there has been a trend in recent years for the winner to have some seven furlong winning form on their CV. I am sure that Fahey will throw a few at this race but if Doncaster Rover runs in the contest it will be the first time he has run below Listed and Group company (bar a couple of efforts in handicaps in Meydan which are always more like Listed events anyway) since his two year old career. His record in Class Two events is two wins out of two runs. In-running wise he tends to trade bigger in the run as he is a hold up performer who is produced late.
On Doncaster Rover's next three runs (including the Ayr Gold Cup I hope) back half you stake at BSP and then put up a further offer at double the BSP in the run. Lay out double your matched stake at the matched price.

Area Fifty One
Another Richard Fahey horse on the service and one that I have grown to admire over the last year as an identified flying object rather than the unidentified ones the conspiracy theorists believe are held at the Nevada military base that his horse is named after. He is a prominent runner with plenty of courage and battling qualities who made a fantastic effort to win the Ebor, just coming up three lengths short. That was on ground softer than Area Fifty One likes, and over a trip he hadn't encountered before, so he showed what he was all about even in defeat.
Back Area Fifty One pre-race at BSP. On good to firm ground lay out your stake only at 1/2 the BSP and on any other ground lay out virtually double your stake with a further odds-on offer to have the field winning for you.

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