The Punters De-Brief: Lawrie wins with ease

Paul Lawrie with his latest trophy
With his pre-event pick, Paul Lawrie, comfortably winning in Scotland, it's been a great week for Steve but he's not resting on his laurels and he's already eying up a potential value play for next week...
Before I start on last week's events, Jos Mara Olazbal has just announced his wild card picks for the European Ryder Cup team and there are no surprises with Ian Poulter and Nicolas Colsaerts expectedly getting the nod.
Back to last week and with an utterly professional performance Paul Lawrie sauntered to victory at the Johnnie Walker Championship, winning by four strokes. Having entered the final round with a slender one shot lead, the Scottish veteran soon widened the gap and the result was never really in doubt from the get-go.
It was a different story at The Barclays though, where third round leader, Sergio Garcia, set the scene with a bogey at the opening hole. Nick Watney birdied the 2nd hole to draw level with the Spaniard before the gap of two was re-established when Watney bogeyed the 5th and Sergio drained a monster birdie putt on the 6th. That looked a big moment for Sergio but as it transpired, it inspired Watney instead. The likable Californian birdied three of the next four holes to take control as Sergio limped home, playing the remainder of the course in four over-par.
Starting the week at triple-figure odds after a poor season with just two top-tens to his name, it was hard to see where Watney found his form from and I suspect it's all a little too late for him to be considered for Davis Love's Ryder Cup team. Somewhat bizarrely, he now heads the FedEx Cup standings.
My Bets
I have to confess, I was less than enthusiastic about last week's events. Enjoying a family holiday, I found it tough to get stuck into the research after a day at the beach last Monday and I even threatened to take a complete break from the golf next year. I can't now though can I, not after Paul Lawrie's win.
Although I found the Johnnie Walker Championship devilishly hard to get an angle-in on, Lawrie looked a very obvious pick to me and once he'd started well on Thursday, something he rarely does, I was quite optimistic about his chances.
I layed a fair bit back yesterday at all rates down from 1.705/7 but I'm not going to start moaning about that now. Although he was completely solid yesterday, Lawrie hasn't always been so reliable, indeed he led this event by two strokes at halfway in 2009 before drifting away over the weekend.
By the time Lawrie made the turn I was winning handsomely whether he won or not and that's always the best way to go. If nothing else, it's far less stressful.
I was obviously happy to win with Lawrie but I was even more pleased with how I read The Barclays. I'd written in the In-Play Blog yesterday that I thought Lawrie was too big and that Garcia was too short and when the Spaniard went odds-on before play started I stuck to my guns and layed the remainder of my halfway wager on him back at 1.981/1, ensuring a winning book, whatever the result.
It's hard to give up a decent profit in place of a modest win regardless of outcome and when Stanley at Tour-Tips.com posted to Twitter that "Sergio Garcia has successfully held a 36-hole lead in rd3 on 11 prior occasions. In 10 of those 11 occasions he has gone on to win the event" soon after I'd written my In-Play update, I did wonder whether I'd got it all wrong.
Having backed back my third round in-running lay on Lawrie when he drifted to what I thought was too big a price before the final round, and having layed back my halfway wager on Sergio when I thought he was trading too short, it could have so easily have all gone wrong yesterday. A double-bogey by Lawrie at the 1st hole would have spelt disaster and Garcia could well have gone on to justify his short 54-hole price and had that happened I wouldn't be quite so chipper this morning.
What yesterday did prove is that the old adage of there's lies, damn lies and then there's statistics often rings true. That was quite a compelling stat re Sergio but I told myself that it had to be put into context and for once I was right. The Sergio of today is very far removed from the one of old and at the risk of over using the old adages, one swallow doth not a summer make. Yes, he'd won well at last week's Wyndham but he's been very fragile of late and he should never have been odds-on to convert.
What have we learnt for next year?
Not a lot is the answer. The Barclays is a nomadic event nowadays so spending time analysing that result is pretty futile and the Johnnie Walker Championship remains a bit of a mystery.
Length of the tee and an ability to take advantage of the par fives is certainly important but no stat stands out at all and the best tactic I can suggest is to concentrate on those with previous course form. Why Brett Rumford should fare well at Gleneagles is beyond me but he clearly like the gaff. After losing his way midway through Saturday's third round, he was always up against it but he still finished second and he was very unlucky not to win the event in 2010, when Edoardo Molinari produced a miraculous finish to pip him on the post.
Player to follow
Over on the Challenge Tour, a 26 year-old Swede has smashed all sorts of records and we'll get to see him in Switzerland next week at the Omega European Masters. Kristoffer Broberg has played just five events on the Challenge Tour in 2012 and yet he's already won three times! He's the fifth player to gain 'battleground promotion' to the main tour, courtesy of three Challenger Tour victories in the same season but nobody's done it in the space of a month before!
He'd won four times on the Nordic League (three times in 2012) prior to his recent run but I have to confess, I'd never even heard of him until lately and his upturn in fortunes is nothing short of astonishing. Whether he can continue it on the main tour is highly debatable but some uninformed layer might get himself a shock. He hasn't even been put in the market yet but once he's listed he might be worth chancing at a big price.
I'm really looking forward to this week's event. I love watching the Omega European Masters at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre and I've had a bit of success there of late too. And in the States, the FedEx Cup playoff series moves on to Massachusetts for the Deutsche Bank Championship. I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday with previews for both events.